Offense#82
-1.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.20 #41 FBSSuccess rate44.7% #42 FBS
American Athletic · #81 of 138
Tulane
Implied Strength-3.5vs. FBS average · ±3.6
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility76%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule84thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Kansas StateWeek 3 · OV Line TULN +19 · 7% win chance →Toughest remaining test#22 Kansas StateWeek 3 · 7% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#80
-1.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.15 #67 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.6% #110 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Tulane's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (6.6 expected wins), with a 2% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 76.0%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
1.8%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached1.8% total
Auto-bid1.6%
At-large0.2%
Outside field98.2%
Conference title8.0%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production21.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class116thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production90thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.1Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Tulane through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS55%6–5–1 against consensus
Average line gap2.4 pts67% inside 3 points · 8 of 12
Factor coverage17%2 of 12 games
Factor signals50% aligned1 of 2 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Tulane games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | vs. North TexasHome | Tulane +0.5 | Tulane +1.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 34–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W14 | vs. CharlotteHome | Tulane -29.5 | Tulane -31 | 1.3 pts toward Tulane | 4.0 pts toward opponents | 5.2 pts toward Tulane | W 27–0 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W13 | at TempleAway | Tulane -9 | Tulane -7.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 37–13 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. Florida AtlanticHome | Tulane -21 | Tulane -16.5 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.3 pts toward opponents | W 35–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at MemphisAway | Tulane +3.5 | Tulane +3 | 0.5 pts toward Tulane | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Tulane | W 38–32 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at UTSAAway | Tulane -4 | Tulane -6 | 2.0 pts toward Tulane | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Tulane | L 26–48 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. East CarolinaHome | Tulane -4 | Tulane -7 | 3.0 pts toward Tulane | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Tulane | W 26–19 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at TulsaAway | Tulane -14.5 | Tulane -14.5 | 0.1 pts toward Tulane | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Tulane | W 31–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at Ole MissAway | Tulane +16.5 | Tulane +12.5 | 4.1 pts toward Tulane | None identified | 4.1 pts toward Tulane | L 10–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. DukeHome | Tulane -8 | Tulane -1.5 | 6.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.3 pts toward opponents | W 34–27 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at South AlabamaAway | Tulane -10 | Tulane -13.5 | 3.7 pts toward Tulane | None identified | 3.7 pts toward Tulane | W 33–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Tulane -5 | Tulane -6.5 | 1.5 pts toward Tulane | None identified | 1.5 pts toward Tulane | W 23–3 | W | None identified |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.