High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Duke ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTulane at Duke
Week 1 · Sep 5Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham, NC
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Duke -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Duke -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusDuke -92-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Duke -92-book consensus · updated Aug 26Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward DukeExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Revenge game Developing estimate
Duke lost the most recent meeting with Tulane.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySeason Opener with a New Head Coach No separate adjustment
Will Hall begins his first Tulane season; Duke returns Manny Diaz. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.
Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Tulane 3 · Duke 17
- Pregame OV Line
- Duke -7.5
- Final recorded market
- Duke -9
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Duke by 14
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineDuke -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Duke -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusDuke -8.5Based on 2 books
Duke -8.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Tulane 29.7%Duke 70.3%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Duke -9
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