Offense#73
-0.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.30 #18 FBSSuccess rate46.7% #22 FBS
American Athletic · #73 of 138
South Florida
Implied Strength-1.5vs. FBS average · ±3.6
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds10%make the 12-team field
Conference Title15%win American Athletic
Strength of Schedule105thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Delaware StateWeek 3 · OV Line USF -31.5 · 99% win chance →Toughest remaining test#64 UTSAWeek 6 · 34% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.3 rating points.
Defense#74
-1.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.08 #30 FBSSuccess rate allowed37.9% #28 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How South Florida's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 9–3 (9.1 expected wins), with a 10% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 9 winsCentral 80% 7–11 winsBowl eligible 99.2%Undefeated 3.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
9.7%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached9.7% total
Auto-bid8.5%
At-large1.2%
Outside field90.3%
Conference title15.3%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
13% of prior-year PPA returns, placing South Florida in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production12.6%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class21stof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production85thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total8.2Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5
Spread:USF -14.5vs.USF -14.5
Florida International at South Florida · Tampa, FL · Raymond James Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
South Florida through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS73%8–3–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts58% inside 3 points · 7 of 12
Factor coverage67%8 of 12 games
Factor signals88% aligned7 of 8 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in South Florida games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 6 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 100%6 of 6 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 2 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. RiceHome | South Florida -30.5 | South Florida -28.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward South Florida | W 52–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W13 | at UABAway | South Florida -22.5 | South Florida -21.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 2.0 pts toward South Florida | W 48–18 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | at NavyAway | South Florida -6.5 | South Florida -8.5 | 2.0 pts toward South Florida | None identified | 2.0 pts toward South Florida | L 38–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. UTSAHome | South Florida -12.5 | South Florida -14 | 1.7 pts toward South Florida | 0.8 pts toward South Florida | 0.9 pts toward South Florida | W 55–23 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | at MemphisAway | South Florida +2.5 | South Florida -3.5 | 6.1 pts toward South Florida | None identified | 6.1 pts toward South Florida | L 31–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Florida AtlanticHome | South Florida -23.5 | South Florida -20.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | 3.0 pts toward opponents | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 48–13 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W7 | at North TexasAway | South Florida +3 | South Florida +2.5 | 0.6 pts toward South Florida | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward South Florida | W 63–36 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. CharlotteHome | South Florida -29 | South Florida -28 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 3.8 pts toward opponents | 3.0 pts toward South Florida | W 54–26 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. South Carolina StateHome | South Florida -27.5 | South Florida -36 | 8.7 pts toward South Florida | 1.6 pts toward South Florida | 7.0 pts toward South Florida | W 63–14 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | at MiamiAway | South Florida +12.5 | South Florida +17.5 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 12–49 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at FloridaAway | South Florida +26.5 | South Florida +18.5 | 7.8 pts toward South Florida | 3.4 pts toward South Florida | 4.4 pts toward South Florida | W 18–16 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Boise StateHome | South Florida +6.5 | South Florida +5.5 | 0.9 pts toward South Florida | None identified | 0.9 pts toward South Florida | W 34–7 | W | None identified |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.