Close-win regression Developing estimate
South Florida enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTemple at South Florida
Week 5 · Oct 3Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
South Florida -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusSouth Florida -5.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
South Florida -5.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward TempleExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate
South Florida has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
South Florida ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
South Florida faces materially stronger UTSA in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Temple enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Temple enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Temple enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Temple enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Temple lost the most recent meeting with South Florida.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Temple is the underdog in a matchup played at least 6 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Temple 17 · South Florida 13
- Pregame OV Line
- South Florida -9
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- South Florida -5.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Temple by 4
Observed 11h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineSouth Florida -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSouth Florida -6Earliest observed 11-book consensus
South Florida -6Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Temple 24.0%South Florida 76.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · South Florida -5.5
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