Offense#89
-3.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.18 #56 FBSSuccess rate42.8% #63 FBS
American Athletic · #100 of 138
Temple
Implied Strength-9.7vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility51%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule85thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat ToledoWeek 3 · OV Line TEM +5 · 35% win chance →Toughest remaining test#70 NavyWeek 10 · 18% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 3.7 rating points.
Defense#117
-6.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.26 #125 FBSSuccess rate allowed45.0% #121 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Temple's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.6 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 5 winsMedian 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 50.6%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.2%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.2% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.8%
Conference title1.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Temple. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production37.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class86thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production104thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.5Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Rhode Island at Temple · Philadelphia, PA · Lincoln Financial Field
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Temple through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS55%6–5 against consensus
Average line gap1.5 pts91% inside 3 points · 10 of 11
Factor coverage45%5 of 11 games
Factor signals60% aligned3 of 5 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample11 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Temple games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 2.5 pts toward Temple | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 2 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward Temple | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 11 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at North TexasAway | Temple +20 | Temple +20.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 25–52 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. TulaneHome | Temple +9 | Temple +7.5 | 1.5 pts toward Temple | 1.1 pts toward Temple | 0.5 pts toward Temple | L 13–37 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. East CarolinaHome | Temple +7.5 | Temple +5.5 | 1.8 pts toward Temple | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward Temple | L 14–45 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | at TulsaAway | Temple -3.5 | Temple -4.5 | 1.2 pts toward Temple | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Temple | W 38–37 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at CharlotteAway | Temple -8 | Temple -9.5 | 1.6 pts toward Temple | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Temple | W 49–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. NavyHome | Temple +8.5 | Temple +10 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 31–32 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. UTSAHome | Temple +6.5 | Temple +6.5 | 0.1 pts toward Temple | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Temple | W 27–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at Georgia TechAway | Temple +26.5 | Temple +24.5 | 2.2 pts toward Temple | 3.4 pts toward Temple | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 24–45 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. OklahomaHome | Temple +19.5 | Temple +23.5 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.0 pts toward opponents | L 3–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. HowardHome | Temple -29 | Temple -28 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward Temple | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 55–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at MassachusettsAway | Temple -1.5 | Temple -2.5 | 0.9 pts toward Temple | 0.9 pts toward Temple | 0.1 pts toward Temple | W 42–10 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 11 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.