Offense#84
-1.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.16 #76 FBSSuccess rate40.3% #98 FBS
American Athletic · #93 of 138
Florida Atlantic
Implied Strength-7.2vs. FBS average · ±3.5
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility73%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule83rdof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Florida InternationalWeek 3 · OV Line FAU -8 · 73% win chance →Toughest remaining test#64 UTSAWeek 10 · 32% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 3.3 rating points.
Defense#101
-5.2vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.22 #114 FBSSuccess rate allowed43.7% #100 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Florida Atlantic's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (6.5 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 4–9 winsBowl eligible 73.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.9%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.9% total
Auto-bid0.8%
At-large0.1%
Outside field99.1%
Conference title2.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Florida Atlantic. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production68.4%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class129thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production99thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.1Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Florida Atlantic at Florida · Gainesville, FL · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Florida Atlantic through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS58%7–5 against consensus
Average line gap2.3 pts58% inside 3 points · 7 of 12
Factor coverage33%4 of 12 games
Factor signals50% aligned2 of 4 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Florida Atlantic games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 2 | No net direction | 0%0 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 3.0 pts toward Florida Atlantic | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward Florida Atlantic | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. East CarolinaHome | Florida Atlantic +11 | Florida Atlantic +7 | 3.8 pts toward Florida Atlantic | None identified | 3.8 pts toward Florida Atlantic | L 3–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. UConnHome | Florida Atlantic +6.5 | Florida Atlantic +6 | 0.5 pts toward Florida Atlantic | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Florida Atlantic | L 45–48 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at TulaneAway | Florida Atlantic +21 | Florida Atlantic +16.5 | 4.3 pts toward Florida Atlantic | None identified | 4.3 pts toward Florida Atlantic | L 24–35 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. TulsaHome | Florida Atlantic -6 | Florida Atlantic -4.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | W 40–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at NavyAway | Florida Atlantic +18 | Florida Atlantic +14.5 | 3.3 pts toward Florida Atlantic | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 4.5 pts toward Florida Atlantic | L 32–42 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | at South FloridaAway | Florida Atlantic +23.5 | Florida Atlantic +20.5 | 3.2 pts toward Florida Atlantic | 3.0 pts toward Florida Atlantic | 0.2 pts toward Florida Atlantic | L 13–48 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. UABHome | Florida Atlantic -6 | Florida Atlantic -4.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | W 53–33 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at RiceAway | Florida Atlantic +4 | Florida Atlantic +4.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 27–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. MemphisHome | Florida Atlantic +14 | Florida Atlantic +14 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Florida Atlantic | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 26–55 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | at Florida InternationalAway | Florida Atlantic +1 | Florida Atlantic +2 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 28–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Florida A&MHome | Florida Atlantic -15 | Florida Atlantic -21.5 | 6.2 pts toward Florida Atlantic | None identified | 6.2 pts toward Florida Atlantic | W 56–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at MarylandAway | Florida Atlantic +14.5 | Florida Atlantic +13.5 | 1.2 pts toward Florida Atlantic | 0.9 pts toward Florida Atlantic | 0.3 pts toward Florida Atlantic | L 7–39 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.