Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Florida Atlantic was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFlorida International at Florida Atlantic
Week 3 · Sep 19FAU Stadium · Boca Raton, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Florida Atlantic -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Florida Atlantic -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusFlorida Atlantic -4.59-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 5:45 PM EDT
Florida Atlantic -4.59-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 5:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Florida InternationalExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
Florida Atlantic enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-total favorite Inconclusive
Florida Atlantic is favored in a game with a consensus total of 62.2.
Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Florida Atlantic lost the most recent meeting with Florida International.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Florida International is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Florida International 10 · Florida Atlantic 16
- Pregame OV Line
- Florida Atlantic -8
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Florida Atlantic -4.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Florida Atlantic by 6
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineFlorida Atlantic -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Florida Atlantic -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusFlorida Atlantic -7Earliest observed 9-book consensus
Florida Atlantic -7Earliest observed 9-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Florida International 26.6%Florida Atlantic 73.4%
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Market consensus · Florida Atlantic -4.5
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