Offense#114
-6.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.16 #78 FBSSuccess rate40.7% #90 FBS
Conference USA · #114 of 138
Florida International
Implied Strength-12.6vs. FBS average · ±3.4
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility78%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule134thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Florida AtlanticWeek 3 · OV Line FIU +8 · 27% win chance →Toughest remaining test#93 Florida AtlanticWeek 3 · 27% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#111
-6.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.15 #66 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.9% #75 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Florida International's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (6.7 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 78.1%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title9.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Florida International. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production31.6%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class113thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production116thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.2Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5
Spread:USF -14.5vs.USF -14.5
Florida International at South Florida · Tampa, FL · Raymond James Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Florida International through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS67%8–4 against consensus
Average line gap2.9 pts58% inside 3 points · 7 of 12
Factor coverage33%4 of 12 games
Factor signals50% aligned2 of 4 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Florida International games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 3.9 pts toward Florida International | 0%0 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 2 | 0.2 pts toward Florida International | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Sam HoustonNeutral | Florida International -10 | Florida International -10.5 | 0.7 pts toward Florida International | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Florida International | W 56–16 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Jacksonville StateHome | Florida International -2.5 | Florida International -2.5 | 0.1 pts toward Florida International | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Florida International | W 27–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. LibertyHome | Florida International +2.5 | Florida International +2.5 | 0.1 pts toward Florida International | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Florida International | W 34–27 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at Middle TennesseeAway | Florida International -1.5 | Florida International +1.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 56–30 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at Missouri StateAway | Florida International +5.5 | Florida International +3 | 2.7 pts toward Florida International | None identified | 2.7 pts toward Florida International | L 21–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Kennesaw StateHome | Florida International -3 | Florida International +3 | 5.8 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 4.6 pts toward opponents | L 26–45 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | at Western KentuckyAway | Florida International +11 | Florida International +10 | 0.9 pts toward Florida International | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Florida International | W 25–6 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at UConnAway | Florida International +15 | Florida International +7 | 7.8 pts toward Florida International | 1.7 pts toward Florida International | 6.0 pts toward Florida International | L 10–51 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. DelawareHome | Florida International -8 | Florida International -4 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.0 pts toward opponents | L 16–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Florida AtlanticHome | Florida International -1 | Florida International -2 | 1.1 pts toward Florida International | None identified | 1.1 pts toward Florida International | W 38–28 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at Penn StateAway | Florida International +35.5 | Florida International +42 | 6.5 pts toward opponents | 5.1 pts toward Florida International | 11.5 pts toward opponents | L 0–34 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Bethune-CookmanHome | Florida International -28.5 | Florida International -26.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward Florida International | 4.7 pts toward opponents | W 42–9 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.