New Mexico State at Florida International

Week 6 · Oct 7Pitbull Stadium · Miami, FL

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineFlorida International -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusFlorida International -6.511-book consensus · observed Oct 7, 3:10 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineFlorida International -6Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Florida InternationalOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineFlorida International -7Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward New Mexico StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineFlorida International -6Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Florida InternationalOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Florida International -7Opening Market ConsensusFlorida International -3.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward New Mexico StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Florida International -7Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusFlorida International -6.5Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward New Mexico StateExplore similar gaps Florida International has extra rest~1 pt toward Florida International

Florida International has extra rest

~1 pt toward Florida International

Florida International has 5.1 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 0.8 points toward Florida International; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Florida International enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Florida International enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Florida International is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

New Mexico State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

New Mexico State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

New Mexico State lost the most recent meeting with Florida International.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

New Mexico State lost the most recent meeting with Florida International by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?New Mexico State 3 · Florida International 22
Pregame OV Line
Florida International -6
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Florida International -6.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Florida International -7
Actual margin
Florida International by 19

Observed 4h 19m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
New Mexico State 32.2%Florida International 67.8%

Make Your Picks

Open until scheduled kickoff

Who will win this game?

Straight-up winner

Your winner pick refines your personal ratings. Game location is accounted for; your spread pick records where you differ from the market.

Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 7.

Compare Teams

New Mexico StateVSFlorida International

Model View

Overall Rating-18.0 · #126-13.8 · #116
Offense Rating-12.0-7.1
Defense Rating-6.0-6.7

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.030.16
Offense Success Rate36.4%40.7%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.100.15
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.9%41.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.46.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank117th133rd