Offense#134
-11.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.08 #113 FBSSuccess rate39.6% #106 FBS
Mid-American · #127 of 138
Buffalo
Implied Strength-18.0vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility46%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule129thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Penn StateWeek 3 · OV Line BUF +37 · <0.01% win chance →Toughest remaining test#18 Penn StateWeek 3 · <0.01% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 5.2 rating points.
Defense#114
-6.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.11 #48 FBSSuccess rate allowed38.8% #38 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Buffalo's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (5.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 4–7 winsBowl eligible 46.1%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title1.5%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
<0.01% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Buffalo in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production-0.8%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class95thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production65thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.9Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Buffalo through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
No historical OV-to-market records are available for this team.