Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Penn State is favored by 40.8 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBuffalo at Penn State
Week 3 · Sep 19Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA
Matchup View
Opening Line
Penn State -37Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Penn State -37Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusPenn State -412-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Penn State -412-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward Penn StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Penn State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Penn State faces materially stronger Wisconsin in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Penn State is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Wisconsin.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Buffalo enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Buffalo is a 40.8-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Buffalo lost the most recent meeting with Penn State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Buffalo lost the most recent meeting with Penn State by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LinePenn State -37Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Penn State -37Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusPenn State -39Based on 2 books
Penn State -39Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Buffalo 0.2%Penn State 99.8%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Penn State -41
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