Buffalo at Toledo

Week 6 · Oct 10Glass Bowl · Toledo, OH

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineToledo -19Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusToledo -18.511-book consensus · observed Oct 10, 12:16 PM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward BuffaloExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?Buffalo 23 · Toledo 8
Pregame OV Line
Toledo -19
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Toledo -18.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
Buffalo by 15

Observed 3h 13m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Buffalo 7.3%Toledo 92.7%

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Open until scheduled kickoff

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Straight-up winner

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Compare Teams

BuffaloVSToledo

Model View

Overall Rating-15.2 · #120-5.8 · #88
Offense Rating-10.2-3.3
Defense Rating-5.0-2.6

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.080.20
Offense Success Rate39.6%44.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.11-0.08
Defense Success Rate Allowed38.8%33.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.97.7
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank130th135th