Offense#136
-13.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play-0.00 #133 FBSSuccess rate32.5% #136 FBS
Mid-American · #134 of 138
Ball State
Implied Strength-21.1vs. FBS average · ±3.9
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility21%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule114thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat LibertyWeek 3 · OV Line BALL +16 · 10% win chance →Toughest remaining test#48 NorthwesternWeek 6 · 1% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 4.9 rating points.
Defense#124
-8.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.18 #87 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.7% #113 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Ball State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 4–8 (4.2 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 4 winsCentral 80% 2–6 winsBowl eligible 20.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title0.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Keldric Luster enters with limited established experience
Keldric Luster enters the season with only 12 career passing attempts. That uncertainty can matter more to an individual spread than to an aggregate season forecast.
17 comparable openers averaged about 0.9 points away from the low-experience quarterback's team. 1 upcoming matchup carries the Factor.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
6% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Ball State in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production5.7%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class54thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production134thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.6Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Ball State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS58%7–5 against consensus
Average line gap2.5 pts50% inside 3 points · 6 of 12
Factor coverage33%4 of 12 games
Factor signals75% aligned3 of 4 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Ball State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 4.5 pts toward Ball State | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.1 pts toward Ball State | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Miami (OH)Away | Ball State +20 | Ball State +16.5 | 3.4 pts toward Ball State | None identified | 3.4 pts toward Ball State | L 24–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at ToledoAway | Ball State +28 | Ball State +29.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward Ball State | 5.2 pts toward opponents | L 9–38 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. Eastern MichiganHome | Ball State +1 | Ball State +2.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 9–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Kent StateHome | Ball State -7 | Ball State -3 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.0 pts toward opponents | W 17–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at Northern IllinoisAway | Ball State +9.5 | Ball State +6.5 | 3.1 pts toward Ball State | None identified | 3.1 pts toward Ball State | L 7–21 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. AkronHome | Ball State -5 | Ball State +2 | 7.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.2 pts toward opponents | W 42–28 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at Western MichiganAway | Ball State +13 | Ball State +9.5 | 3.3 pts toward Ball State | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Ball State | L 0–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. OhioHome | Ball State +14.5 | Ball State +14 | 0.4 pts toward Ball State | 1.1 pts toward Ball State | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 20–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at UConnAway | Ball State +24.5 | Ball State +21 | 3.4 pts toward Ball State | 3.1 pts toward Ball State | 0.3 pts toward Ball State | L 25–31 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. New HampshireHome | Ball State -4.5 | Ball State -3 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 34–29 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at AuburnAway | Ball State +43 | Ball State +43 | 0.4 pts toward Ball State | 6.8 pts toward Ball State | 6.5 pts toward opponents | L 3–42 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at PurdueAway | Ball State +17.5 | Ball State +16.5 | 0.8 pts toward Ball State | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Ball State | L 0–31 | L | None identified |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.