Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Liberty enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBall State at Liberty
Week 3 · Sep 19Williams Stadium (VA) · Lynchburg, VA
Matchup View
Opening Line
Liberty -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Liberty -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusLiberty -14.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Liberty -14.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Ball StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Liberty enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Liberty is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Liberty is favored by 14.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Ball State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Ball State enters after losing its previous lined game by 53 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Ball State is a 14.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineLiberty -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Liberty -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusLiberty -14.5Based on 2 books
Liberty -14.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Ball State 10.2%Liberty 89.8%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Liberty -14.5
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