Offense#88
-2.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.17 #68 FBSSuccess rate43.5% #52 FBS
Conference USA · #95 of 138
Liberty
Implied Strength-7.5vs. FBS average · ±4.1
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility93%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule138thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Ball StateWeek 3 · OV Line LIB -16 · 90% win chance →Toughest remaining test#108 DelawareWeek 5 · 52% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.7 rating points.
Defense#98
-4.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.20 #106 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.5% #68 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Liberty's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 8–4 (8.1 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 9 winsMedian 8 winsCentral 80% 6–10 winsBowl eligible 93.3%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.2%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.2% total
Auto-bid0.2%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.8%
Conference title32.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Liberty. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production38.3%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class59thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production100thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total8.3Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered
Liberty at James Madison · Harrisonburg, VA · Bridgeforth Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Liberty through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS35%6–11 against consensus
Average line gap3.1 pts41% inside 3 points · 7 of 17
Factor coverage47%8 of 17 games
Factor signals43% aligned3 of 7 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample17 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Liberty games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 50%2 of 4 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 1.9 pts toward Liberty | 33%1 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 17 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Kennesaw StateHome | Liberty -3 | Liberty +2.5 | 5.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.7 pts toward opponents | L 42–48 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Louisiana TechAway | Liberty +5.5 | Liberty -1.5 | 7.1 pts toward Liberty | None identified | 7.1 pts toward Liberty | L 28–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Florida InternationalAway | Liberty -2.5 | Liberty -2.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 27–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Missouri StateHome | Liberty -8.5 | Liberty -7.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 17–21 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. DelawareHome | Liberty -7.5 | Liberty -3.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward Liberty | 4.5 pts toward opponents | W 59–30 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. New Mexico StateHome | Liberty -15.5 | Liberty -10.5 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | W 30–27 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | at UTEPAway | Liberty -2 | Liberty -1.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 19–8 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at Old DominionAway | Liberty +14.5 | Liberty +14.5 | No net direction | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Liberty | L 7–21 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. James MadisonHome | Liberty +4 | Liberty +7.5 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 13–31 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | at Bowling GreenAway | Liberty -3 | Liberty -6 | 2.8 pts toward Liberty | None identified | 2.8 pts toward Liberty | L 13–23 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at Jacksonville StateAway | Liberty -7.5 | Liberty -6.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 24–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. MaineHome | Liberty -28.5 | Liberty -25.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward Liberty | 6.0 pts toward opponents | W 28–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. Virginia TechHome | Liberty -7 | Liberty -10.5 | 3.7 pts toward Liberty | None identified | 3.7 pts toward Liberty | L 22–23 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at ArkansasAway | Liberty +14 | Liberty +14.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Liberty | 2.2 pts toward opponents | W 21–19 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. BYUHome | Liberty +11 | Liberty +7 | 4.1 pts toward Liberty | None identified | 4.1 pts toward Liberty | W 41–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. Gardner-WebbHome | Liberty -31 | Liberty -24.5 | 6.3 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward Liberty | 7.0 pts toward opponents | W 21–20 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W3 | at Wake ForestAway | Liberty +21 | Liberty +17.5 | 3.6 pts toward Liberty | 2.4 pts toward Liberty | 1.2 pts toward Liberty | L 36–37 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 17 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.