Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
New Mexico State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLiberty at New Mexico State
Week 10 · Nov 7Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces, NM
Matchup View
Opening Line
Liberty -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Liberty -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusLiberty -1711-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Liberty -1711-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward LibertyExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
New Mexico State enters after losing its previous lined game by 24 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
New Mexico State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
New Mexico State is a 17.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
New Mexico State lost the most recent meeting with Liberty.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
New Mexico State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 9 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Liberty enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Liberty enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStraight-up hot streak Developing estimate
Liberty has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Liberty has covered at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Liberty is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Liberty is favored by 17.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineLiberty -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Liberty -16Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusLiberty -17Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Liberty -17Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Liberty 88.9%New Mexico State 11.1%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Liberty -17
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