Offense#93
-3.2vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.19 #50 FBSSuccess rate43.3% #55 FBS
Conference USA · #108 of 138
Delaware
Implied Strength-10.7vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility70%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule115thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Coastal CarolinaWeek 3 · OV Line DEL -5 · 65% win chance →Toughest remaining test#37 VirginiaWeek 4 · 5% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 4.3 rating points.
Defense#122
-7.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.21 #108 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.3% #65 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Delaware's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (6.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 7 winsMedian 6 winsCentral 80% 4–9 winsBowl eligible 69.8%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.1%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.1% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.9%
Conference title15.1%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Delaware. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production84.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class118thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production111thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.2Consensus preseason line
6:00 PM · Oct 27
Delaware at Western Kentucky · Bowling Green, KY · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Delaware through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS31%4–9 against consensus
Average line gap4.6 pts23% inside 3 points · 3 of 13
Factor coverage54%7 of 13 games
Factor signals71% aligned5 of 7 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample13 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Delaware games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 4 | 0.1 pts toward Delaware | 75%3 of 4 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 1.8 pts toward Delaware | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 13 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. UTEPHome | Delaware -5.5 | Delaware -4.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 61–31 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Wake ForestAway | Delaware +19 | Delaware +17.5 | 1.7 pts toward Delaware | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Delaware | L 14–52 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. Sam HoustonNeutral | Delaware -8 | Delaware -11.5 | 3.5 pts toward Delaware | None identified | 3.5 pts toward Delaware | L 23–26 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Louisiana TechHome | Delaware +4 | Delaware +5.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | W 25–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at LibertyAway | Delaware +7.5 | Delaware +3.5 | 3.9 pts toward Delaware | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 4.5 pts toward Delaware | L 30–59 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Middle TennesseeHome | Delaware -14 | Delaware -8.5 | 5.3 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | W 31–28 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | at Jacksonville StateAway | Delaware +3 | Delaware -3 | 5.8 pts toward Delaware | 1.5 pts toward Delaware | 4.3 pts toward Delaware | L 25–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Western KentuckyHome | Delaware +4 | Delaware -2.5 | 6.4 pts toward Delaware | 1.1 pts toward Delaware | 5.3 pts toward Delaware | L 24–27 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at Florida InternationalAway | Delaware +8 | Delaware +4 | 4.0 pts toward Delaware | None identified | 4.0 pts toward Delaware | W 38–16 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. UConnHome | Delaware +19 | Delaware +8.5 | 10.5 pts toward Delaware | None identified | 10.5 pts toward Delaware | W 44–41 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at ColoradoAway | Delaware +27.5 | Delaware +23.5 | 3.9 pts toward Delaware | 3.5 pts toward Delaware | 0.3 pts toward Delaware | L 7–31 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Delaware StateHome | Delaware -34 | Delaware -30.5 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward Delaware | 5.7 pts toward opponents | W 35–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | at Penn StateAway | Delaware +35.5 | Delaware +44 | 8.4 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 7.8 pts toward opponents | L 7–63 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 13 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.