Merrimack at Delaware

Week 1 · Sep 3Delaware Stadium · Newark, DE
MerrimackFCS
@
Delaware1–1-10.7 vs. avg · #108

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineDelaware -26Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusDelaware -28.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineDelaware -26Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward DelawareOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineDelaware -28.5Unexplained GapNone at displayed precisionOnVarsity Opening LineDelaware -26Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward DelawareOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Delaware -27.5Opening Market ConsensusDelaware -28.5Unexplained at open~1 pt toward DelawareSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward DelawareOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Delaware -28.5Current Market ConsensusDelaware -28.5Unexplained gapNone at displayed precisionLopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward DelawareAt open ~1.5 pts toward DelawareIn-week ~1 pt toward Delaware

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward DelawareAt open ~1.5 pts toward DelawareIn-week ~1 pt toward Delaware
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Delaware's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 58%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Delaware (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Merrimack 7 · Delaware 42
Pregame OV Line
Delaware -26
Final recorded market
Delaware -28.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Delaware -28.5
Actual margin
Delaware by 35

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Merrimack 3.0%Delaware 97.0%

Compare Teams

MerrimackVSDelaware

Model View

Overall Rating—-10.7 · #108
Offense Rating—-3.2
Defense Rating—-7.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.19
Offense Success Rate—43.3%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.21
Defense Success Rate Allowed—41.3%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—6.2
Playoff Odds—0.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank—115th