Merrimack at Delaware

Week 1 · Sep 3Delaware Stadium · Newark, DE
MerrimackFCS
@
Delaware4–4-13.0 vs. avg · #115

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineDelaware -26Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusDelaware -31.59-book consensus · observed Sep 3, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineDelaware -26Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward DelawareOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineDelaware -28.5Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward DelawareExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineDelaware -26Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward DelawareOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Delaware -27.5Opening Market ConsensusDelaware -28.5Unexplained at open~1 pt toward DelawareSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward DelawareOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Delaware -28.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusDelaware -31.5Unexplained gap~3 pts toward DelawareExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward DelawareAt open ~1.5 pts toward DelawareIn-week ~1 pt toward Delaware

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward DelawareAt open ~1.5 pts toward DelawareIn-week ~1 pt toward Delaware
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Delaware's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 58%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Delaware (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Merrimack 7 · Delaware 42
Pregame OV Line
Delaware -26
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Delaware -31.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Delaware -28.5
Actual margin
Delaware by 35

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Merrimack 3.0%Delaware 97.0%

Compare Teams

MerrimackVSDelaware

Model View

Overall Rating—-13.0 · #115
Offense Rating—-4.3
Defense Rating—-8.7

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.19
Offense Success Rate—43.3%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.21
Defense Success Rate Allowed—41.3%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—6.2
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—119th