Offense#20
+7.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.41 #1 FBSSuccess rate50.3% #5 FBS
SEC · #42 of 138
Vanderbilt
Implied Strength+7.0vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility47%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule16thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. NC StateWeek 3 · OV Line VAN -5.5 · 67% win chance →Toughest remaining test#6 GeorgiaWeek 5 · 5% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 8.2 rating points.
Defense#68
-0.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.19 #96 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.9% #73 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Vanderbilt's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (5.5 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–8 winsBowl eligible 47.3%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
1.2%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached1.2% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large1.1%
Outside field98.8%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Jared Curtis enters with limited established experience
Jared Curtis enters the season with true freshman. That uncertainty can matter more to an individual spread than to an aggregate season forecast.
22 comparable openers averaged about 0.8 points toward the developing quarterback's team. 1 upcoming matchup carries the Factor.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production35.4%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class72ndof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production45thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.8Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Austin Peay at Vanderbilt · Nashville, TN · FirstBank Stadium
11:00 PM · Oct 9
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt · Nashville, TN · FirstBank Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 16
Arkansas at Vanderbilt · Nashville, TN · FirstBank Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 6
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 13
Alabama at Vanderbilt · Nashville, TN · FirstBank Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
12:00 AM · Nov 21
Vanderbilt at Florida · Gainesville, FL · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Vanderbilt through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS55%23–19 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts60% inside 3 points · 25 of 42
Factor coverage50%21 of 42 games
Factor signals79% aligned19 of 24 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample42 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Vanderbilt games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 14 | 1.8 pts toward Vanderbilt | 79%11 of 14 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 10 | 0.8 pts toward Vanderbilt | 80%8 of 10 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 42 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at TennesseeAway | Vanderbilt +6.5 | Vanderbilt +2.5 | 4.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 4.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 45–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. KentuckyHome | Vanderbilt -10.5 | Vanderbilt -7 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Vanderbilt | 4.8 pts toward opponents | W 45–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. AuburnHome | Vanderbilt -5.5 | Vanderbilt -6 | 0.7 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 45–38 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at TexasAway | Vanderbilt +11.5 | Vanderbilt +3.5 | 7.9 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 7.9 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 31–34 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. MissouriHome | Vanderbilt +1 | Vanderbilt -3 | 4.1 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 4.1 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 17–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. LSUHome | Vanderbilt +3.5 | Vanderbilt -1.5 | 5.2 pts toward Vanderbilt | 1.1 pts toward Vanderbilt | 4.1 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 31–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | at AlabamaAway | Vanderbilt +17.5 | Vanderbilt +13.5 | 3.9 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 3.9 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 14–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Utah StateHome | Vanderbilt -22 | Vanderbilt -23.5 | 1.5 pts toward Vanderbilt | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 4.3 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 55–35 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Georgia StateHome | Vanderbilt -35 | Vanderbilt -27.5 | 7.3 pts toward opponents | 5.0 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward opponents | W 70–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | at South CarolinaAway | Vanderbilt +6 | Vanderbilt +3 | 2.8 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 2.8 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 31–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at Virginia TechAway | Vanderbilt -2 | Vanderbilt +2 | 4.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.1 pts toward opponents | W 44–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Charleston SouthernHome | Vanderbilt -40.5 | Vanderbilt -38 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Vanderbilt | 4.4 pts toward opponents | W 45–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. TennesseeHome | Vanderbilt +16 | Vanderbilt +9.5 | 6.7 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 6.7 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 23–36 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at LSUAway | Vanderbilt +14 | Vanderbilt +9.5 | 4.5 pts toward Vanderbilt | 1.7 pts toward Vanderbilt | 2.8 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 17–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. South CarolinaHome | Vanderbilt +7 | Vanderbilt +6 | 1.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 7–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | at AuburnAway | Vanderbilt +9.5 | Vanderbilt +7.5 | 2.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 17–7 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. TexasHome | Vanderbilt +23.5 | Vanderbilt +17 | 6.3 pts toward Vanderbilt | 2.4 pts toward Vanderbilt | 4.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 24–27 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W7 | at KentuckyAway | Vanderbilt +15.5 | Vanderbilt +12.5 | 3.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 4.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 20–13 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. AlabamaHome | Vanderbilt +24.5 | Vanderbilt +23 | 1.3 pts toward Vanderbilt | 3.6 pts toward Vanderbilt | 2.2 pts toward opponents | W 40–35 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W4 | at MissouriAway | Vanderbilt +21.5 | Vanderbilt +18 | 3.6 pts toward Vanderbilt | 2.2 pts toward Vanderbilt | 1.4 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 27–30 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Alcorn StateHome | Vanderbilt -32.5 | Vanderbilt -32.5 | 0.2 pts toward Vanderbilt | 0.7 pts toward Vanderbilt | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 55–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Virginia TechHome | Vanderbilt +11.5 | Vanderbilt +13.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 34–27 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | at TennesseeAway | Vanderbilt +27.5 | Vanderbilt +27 | 0.3 pts toward Vanderbilt | 4.5 pts toward Vanderbilt | 4.2 pts toward opponents | L 24–48 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W11 | at South CarolinaAway | Vanderbilt +14 | Vanderbilt +13.5 | 0.3 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 6–47 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. AuburnHome | Vanderbilt +15.5 | Vanderbilt +12.5 | 3.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 15–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at Ole MissAway | Vanderbilt +30 | Vanderbilt +24 | 6.2 pts toward Vanderbilt | 4.9 pts toward Vanderbilt | 1.4 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 7–33 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. GeorgiaHome | Vanderbilt +34 | Vanderbilt +32.5 | 1.3 pts toward Vanderbilt | 3.6 pts toward Vanderbilt | 2.3 pts toward opponents | L 20–37 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W6 | at FloridaAway | Vanderbilt +19 | Vanderbilt +18.5 | 0.3 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 14–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. MissouriHome | Vanderbilt +13 | Vanderbilt +13.5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.4 pts toward opponents | L 21–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. KentuckyHome | Vanderbilt +14.5 | Vanderbilt +13.5 | 1.1 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 1.1 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 28–45 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | at Wake ForestAway | Vanderbilt +9 | Vanderbilt +9.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 20–36 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Alabama A&MHome | Vanderbilt -35 | Vanderbilt -35 | 0.2 pts toward Vanderbilt | 0.7 pts toward Vanderbilt | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 47–13 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. TennesseeHome | Vanderbilt +26 | Vanderbilt +14 | 11.8 pts toward Vanderbilt | 2.9 pts toward Vanderbilt | 8.9 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 0–56 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. FloridaHome | Vanderbilt +16 | Vanderbilt +14 | 2.2 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 31–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at KentuckyAway | Vanderbilt +17.5 | Vanderbilt +17 | 0.7 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 24–21 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. South CarolinaHome | Vanderbilt +11.5 | Vanderbilt +6.5 | 5.1 pts toward Vanderbilt | 1.1 pts toward Vanderbilt | 4.1 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 27–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W8 | at MissouriAway | Vanderbilt +11 | Vanderbilt +14 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | L 14–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W7 | at GeorgiaAway | Vanderbilt +37.5 | Vanderbilt +37.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward Vanderbilt | 5.1 pts toward opponents | L 0–55 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. Ole MissHome | Vanderbilt +18.5 | Vanderbilt +17 | 1.4 pts toward Vanderbilt | 1.0 pts toward Vanderbilt | 0.4 pts toward Vanderbilt | L 28–52 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W4 | at AlabamaAway | Vanderbilt +43 | Vanderbilt +40.5 | 2.5 pts toward Vanderbilt | 5.9 pts toward Vanderbilt | 3.4 pts toward opponents | L 3–55 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Wake ForestHome | Vanderbilt +1.5 | Vanderbilt +13.5 | 11.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 11.9 pts toward opponents | L 25–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. ElonHome | Vanderbilt -11.5 | Vanderbilt -18.5 | 7.2 pts toward Vanderbilt | None identified | 7.2 pts toward Vanderbilt | W 42–31 | L | None identified |
Sample: 42 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.