High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Vanderbilt ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNC State at Vanderbilt
Week 3 · Sep 19FirstBank Stadium · Nashville, TN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Vanderbilt -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Vanderbilt -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusVanderbilt -310-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 12:30 PM EDT
Vanderbilt -310-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 12:30 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward NC StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
NC State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
NC State enters after losing its previous lined game by 26 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?NC State 31 · Vanderbilt 35
- Pregame OV Line
- Vanderbilt -5.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Vanderbilt -3
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Vanderbilt by 4
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineVanderbilt -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Vanderbilt -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusVanderbilt -3.5Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Vanderbilt -3.5Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
NC State 32.9%Vanderbilt 67.1%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Vanderbilt -3
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