Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

Week 10 · Nov 7Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS

Matchup View

Opening LineMississippi State -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusMississippi State -311-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineMississippi State -9Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward VanderbiltOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineMississippi State -7Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward VanderbiltExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineMississippi State -9Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward VanderbiltOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Mississippi State -7Opening Market ConsensusMississippi State -3Unexplained at open~4 pts toward VanderbiltSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Mississippi State -7Current Market ConsensusMississippi State -3Unexplained gap~4 pts toward VanderbiltExplore similar gaps Vanderbilt has extra rest~2 pts toward Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has extra rest

~2 pts toward Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Vanderbilt; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Mississippi State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Mississippi State enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Mississippi State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Mississippi State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Cold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Mississippi State has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Mississippi State is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Vanderbilt enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Vanderbilt enters after losing its previous lined game by 17 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Vanderbilt enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Vanderbilt enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Cold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Vanderbilt has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Vanderbilt ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Vanderbilt lost the most recent meeting with Mississippi State.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Vanderbilt lost the most recent meeting with Mississippi State by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Vanderbilt faces materially stronger Alabama in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
Vanderbilt 24.3%Mississippi State 75.7%

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Compare Teams

VanderbiltVSMississippi State

Model View

Overall Rating+1.6 · #66+8.1 · #40
Offense Rating+4.9+4.6
Defense Rating-3.3+3.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.410.15
Offense Success Rate50.3%42.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.190.20
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.9%43.3%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.84.6
Playoff Odds<0.01%0.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank15th9th