Offense#48
+3.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.30 #13 FBSSuccess rate48.7% #11 FBS
SEC · #57 of 138
Arkansas
Implied Strength+2.9vs. FBS average · ±4.4
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility8%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule1stof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. GeorgiaWeek 3 · OV Line ARK +20.5 · 6% win chance →Toughest remaining test#3 TexasWeek 12 · 2% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 3.2 rating points.
Defense#64
-0.2vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.25 #123 FBSSuccess rate allowed46.0% #124 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Arkansas's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 3–9 (3.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 3 winsCentral 80% 2–5 winsBowl eligible 7.8%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
14% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Arkansas in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Arkansas ranks 23rd of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production14.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class6thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production23rdof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total3.9Consensus preseason line
11:00 PM · Oct 2
Arkansas at Texas A&M · College Station, TX · Kyle Field — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 9
Tennessee at Arkansas · Fayetteville, AR · Razorback Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 16
Arkansas at Vanderbilt · Nashville, TN · FirstBank Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 30
Missouri at Arkansas · Fayetteville, AR · Razorback Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 13
South Carolina at Arkansas · Fayetteville, AR · Razorback Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 20
Arkansas at Texas · Austin, TX · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium — AFTERNOON: 3:30 - 4:30pm ET start
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Arkansas through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS50%22–22 against consensus
Average line gap2.9 pts59% inside 3 points · 26 of 44
Factor coverage36%16 of 44 games
Factor signals56% aligned9 of 16 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample44 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Arkansas games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.1 pts toward Arkansas | 43%3 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 6 | 0.3 pts toward Arkansas | 83%5 of 6 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 3 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 33%1 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 44 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. MissouriHome | Arkansas 0 | Arkansas +4.5 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.3 pts toward opponents | L 17–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at TexasAway | Arkansas +11 | Arkansas +8.5 | 2.7 pts toward Arkansas | None identified | 2.7 pts toward Arkansas | L 37–52 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at LSUAway | Arkansas +8.5 | Arkansas +4 | 4.5 pts toward Arkansas | 1.8 pts toward Arkansas | 2.7 pts toward Arkansas | L 22–23 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | Arkansas -7 | Arkansas -5.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 35–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. AuburnHome | Arkansas +0.5 | Arkansas -2.5 | 2.8 pts toward Arkansas | None identified | 2.8 pts toward Arkansas | L 24–33 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Texas A&MHome | Arkansas +6 | Arkansas +7.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 42–45 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at TennesseeAway | Arkansas +10 | Arkansas +10 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 31–34 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Notre DameHome | Arkansas +3 | Arkansas +5.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 13–56 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at MemphisAway | Arkansas -9 | Arkansas -7 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | L 31–32 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at Ole MissAway | Arkansas +5.5 | Arkansas +3.5 | 2.1 pts toward Arkansas | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Arkansas | L 35–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Arkansas StateNeutral | Arkansas -21 | Arkansas -24 | 2.9 pts toward Arkansas | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 5.5 pts toward Arkansas | W 56–14 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Alabama A&MHome | Arkansas -42 | Arkansas -47 | 4.9 pts toward Arkansas | 1.5 pts toward Arkansas | 3.4 pts toward Arkansas | W 52–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W14 | at MissouriAway | Arkansas +6.5 | Arkansas +3 | 3.3 pts toward Arkansas | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Arkansas | L 21–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. TexasHome | Arkansas +16.5 | Arkansas +13 | 3.7 pts toward Arkansas | 1.1 pts toward Arkansas | 2.6 pts toward Arkansas | L 10–20 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. Ole MissHome | Arkansas +14 | Arkansas +8 | 6.1 pts toward Arkansas | None identified | 6.1 pts toward Arkansas | L 31–63 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at Mississippi StateAway | Arkansas -8 | Arkansas -7.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 58–25 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. LSUHome | Arkansas +8 | Arkansas +3 | 4.9 pts toward Arkansas | 1.1 pts toward Arkansas | 3.8 pts toward Arkansas | L 10–34 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. TennesseeHome | Arkansas +17.5 | Arkansas +14 | 3.5 pts toward Arkansas | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 5.3 pts toward Arkansas | W 19–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. Texas A&MNeutral | Arkansas +6.5 | Arkansas +6.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Arkansas | L 17–21 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2024 · W4 | at AuburnAway | Arkansas +9.5 | Arkansas +2.5 | 7.2 pts toward Arkansas | None identified | 7.2 pts toward Arkansas | W 24–14 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Arkansas +4.5 | Arkansas +10 | 5.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.3 pts toward opponents | L 31–39 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Arkansas-Pine BluffNeutral | Arkansas -50.5 | Arkansas -50.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward Arkansas | W 70–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. MissouriHome | Arkansas +6.5 | Arkansas +9.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | L 14–48 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. AuburnHome | Arkansas -0.5 | Arkansas -2.5 | 2.0 pts toward Arkansas | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Arkansas | L 10–48 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at FloridaAway | Arkansas +2.5 | Arkansas +3.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Arkansas | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 39–36 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | Arkansas -5.5 | Arkansas -7 | 1.3 pts toward Arkansas | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.0 pts toward Arkansas | L 3–7 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | at AlabamaAway | Arkansas +18 | Arkansas +19.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at Ole MissAway | Arkansas +12.5 | Arkansas +13 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 20–27 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. Texas A&MNeutral | Arkansas +11.5 | Arkansas +6.5 | 5.0 pts toward Arkansas | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 6.1 pts toward Arkansas | L 22–34 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W4 | at LSUAway | Arkansas +16 | Arkansas +17.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 31–34 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. BYUHome | Arkansas -16.5 | Arkansas -8.5 | 8.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.5 pts toward opponents | L 31–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Western CarolinaNeutral | Arkansas -35 | Arkansas -38 | 2.8 pts toward Arkansas | 1.6 pts toward Arkansas | 1.2 pts toward Arkansas | W 56–13 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | at MissouriAway | Arkansas -5.5 | Arkansas -3 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 27–29 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. Ole MissHome | Arkansas +4.5 | Arkansas 0 | 4.3 pts toward Arkansas | None identified | 4.3 pts toward Arkansas | W 42–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. LSUHome | Arkansas +4.5 | Arkansas +5.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 10–13 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. LibertyHome | Arkansas -14 | Arkansas -14.5 | 0.5 pts toward Arkansas | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward Arkansas | L 19–21 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W9 | at AuburnAway | Arkansas -4.5 | Arkansas -4 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 41–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at BYUAway | Arkansas +1 | Arkansas +1 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 52–35 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at Mississippi StateAway | Arkansas +5 | Arkansas +8.5 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.4 pts toward opponents | L 17–40 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. AlabamaHome | Arkansas +24 | Arkansas +17 | 6.9 pts toward Arkansas | 2.7 pts toward Arkansas | 4.2 pts toward Arkansas | L 26–49 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. Texas A&MNeutral | Arkansas +6 | Arkansas +1.5 | 4.7 pts toward Arkansas | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 6.5 pts toward Arkansas | L 21–23 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. Missouri StateHome | Arkansas -24.5 | Arkansas -26 | 1.7 pts toward Arkansas | 1.1 pts toward Arkansas | 0.7 pts toward Arkansas | W 38–27 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. South CarolinaHome | Arkansas -2.5 | Arkansas -9 | 6.5 pts toward Arkansas | None identified | 6.5 pts toward Arkansas | W 44–30 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. CincinnatiHome | Arkansas -6 | Arkansas -6.5 | 0.6 pts toward Arkansas | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Arkansas | W 31–24 | W | None identified |
Sample: 44 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.