Offense#14
+9.2vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.35 #3 FBSSuccess rate49.5% #6 FBS
Big 12 · #21 of 138
Utah
Implied Strength+14.2vs. FBS average · ±4.4
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds30%make the 12-team field
Conference Title12%win Big 12
Strength of Schedule54thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Utah StateWeek 3 · OV Line UTAH -20 · 94% win chance →Toughest remaining test#20 BYUWeek 10 · 57% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 4.1 rating points.
Defense#33
+5.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.07 #24 FBSSuccess rate allowed38.1% #32 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Utah's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 9–3 (9.2 expected wins), with a 30% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 10 winsMedian 9 winsCentral 80% 7–11 winsBowl eligible 98.0%Undefeated 6.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
30.5%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached30.5% total
Auto-bid11.7%
At-large18.8%
Outside field69.5%
Conference title11.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Utah ranks 25th of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production67.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class74thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production25thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total8.8Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Utah through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS58%26–19–2 against consensus
Average line gap3.5 pts57% inside 3 points · 27 of 47
Factor coverage28%13 of 47 games
Factor signals75% aligned9 of 12 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample47 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Utah games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 7 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 86%6 of 7 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 60%3 of 5 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 47 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at KansasAway | Utah -11 | Utah -10 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 31–21 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Utah -16 | Utah -17.5 | 1.4 pts toward Utah | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Utah | W 51–47 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at BaylorAway | Utah -8.5 | Utah -9.5 | 1.0 pts toward Utah | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Utah | W 55–28 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. CincinnatiHome | Utah -11.5 | Utah -11 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 45–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. ColoradoHome | Utah -19 | Utah -14 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 3.4 pts toward opponents | W 53–7 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | at BYUAway | Utah -2.5 | Utah -4 | 1.7 pts toward Utah | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Utah | L 21–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Utah -7.5 | Utah -9.5 | 2.1 pts toward Utah | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Utah | W 42–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at West VirginiaAway | Utah -12 | Utah -13.5 | 1.7 pts toward Utah | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Utah | W 48–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Texas TechHome | Utah -2.5 | Utah -3.5 | 1.2 pts toward Utah | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Utah | L 10–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at WyomingAway | Utah -28 | Utah -24.5 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward Utah | W 31–6 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Cal PolyHome | Utah -54 | Utah -42.5 | 11.7 pts toward opponents | 5.2 pts toward opponents | 6.6 pts toward opponents | W 63–9 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at UCLAAway | Utah -4.5 | Utah -6.5 | 1.9 pts toward Utah | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Utah | W 43–10 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | at UCFAway | Utah +7 | Utah +10 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 28–14 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Utah +5 | Utah +6.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 28–31 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at ColoradoAway | Utah +5 | Utah +13.5 | 8.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.6 pts toward opponents | L 24–49 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. BYUHome | Utah -1.5 | Utah +3 | 4.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.4 pts toward opponents | L 21–22 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at HoustonAway | Utah -10.5 | Utah -4.5 | 6.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.0 pts toward opponents | L 14–17 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. TCUHome | Utah -10.5 | Utah -3 | 7.4 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 5.9 pts toward opponents | L 7–13 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W7 | at Arizona StateAway | Utah -7 | Utah -5.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Utah | 3.2 pts toward opponents | L 19–27 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. ArizonaHome | Utah -17 | Utah -7.5 | 9.3 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 7.6 pts toward opponents | L 10–23 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W4 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Utah -1.5 | Utah -1 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 22–19 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. BaylorHome | Utah -16 | Utah -14.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 23–12 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Southern UtahHome | Utah -37.5 | Utah -37.5 | 0.1 pts toward Utah | 1.3 pts toward Utah | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 49–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. ColoradoHome | Utah -15.5 | Utah -21.5 | 6.1 pts toward Utah | None identified | 6.1 pts toward Utah | W 23–17 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at ArizonaAway | Utah -4 | Utah +2.5 | 6.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.3 pts toward opponents | L 18–42 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at WashingtonAway | Utah +12 | Utah +9.5 | 2.5 pts toward Utah | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Utah | L 28–35 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Utah -20 | Utah -10.5 | 9.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 9.5 pts toward opponents | W 55–3 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. OregonHome | Utah +6.5 | Utah +6.5 | 0.1 pts toward Utah | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Utah | L 6–35 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | at USCAway | Utah +10 | Utah +7 | 2.9 pts toward Utah | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Utah | W 34–32 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Utah -11.5 | Utah -9.5 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Utah | 3.3 pts toward opponents | W 34–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | at Oregon StateAway | Utah +5 | Utah +3.5 | 1.7 pts toward Utah | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Utah | L 7–21 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. UCLAHome | Utah +4 | Utah -3 | 7.1 pts toward Utah | None identified | 7.1 pts toward Utah | W 14–7 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. Weber StateHome | Utah -25 | Utah -26.5 | 1.7 pts toward Utah | 1.5 pts toward Utah | 0.2 pts toward Utah | W 31–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | at BaylorAway | Utah -20.5 | Utah -7 | 13.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 13.7 pts toward opponents | W 20–13 | P | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. FloridaHome | Utah -8 | Utah -5.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 24–11 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W14 | vs. USCNeutral | Utah -1 | Utah +3 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.7 pts toward opponents | W 47–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | at ColoradoAway | Utah -34 | Utah -30 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 4.3 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward Utah | W 63–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W12 | at OregonAway | Utah +1.5 | Utah +1 | 0.4 pts toward Utah | None identified | 0.4 pts toward Utah | L 17–20 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. StanfordHome | Utah -21.5 | Utah -24 | 2.4 pts toward Utah | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward Utah | W 42–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. ArizonaHome | Utah -20.5 | Utah -18 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 45–20 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | at Washington StateAway | Utah -11 | Utah -7.5 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.7 pts toward opponents | W 21–17 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. USCHome | Utah -3.5 | Utah -3.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 43–42 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at UCLAAway | Utah -8.5 | Utah -3 | 5.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.3 pts toward opponents | L 32–42 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. Oregon StateHome | Utah -13.5 | Utah -10.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 42–16 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at Arizona StateAway | Utah -18 | Utah -17 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 34–13 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Southern UtahHome | Utah -47 | Utah -45.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Utah | W 73–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | at FloridaAway | Utah +1.5 | Utah -2.5 | 3.9 pts toward Utah | No net direction | 3.9 pts toward Utah | L 26–29 | L | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 47 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.