Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Utah enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUtah State at Utah
Week 3 · Sep 19Rice-Eccles Stadium · Salt Lake City, UT
Matchup View
Opening Line
Utah -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Utah -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusUtah -28.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Utah -28.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~8.5 pts toward UtahExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Utah enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Utah is favored by 28.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Utah begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Utah ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Utah State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Utah State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Utah State is a 28.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Utah State lost the most recent meeting with Utah.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Utah State lost the most recent meeting with Utah by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineUtah -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Utah -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusUtah -28Based on 2 books
Utah -28Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Utah State 5.8%Utah 94.2%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Utah -28.5
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