Utah at Colorado

Week 7 · Oct 17Folsom Field · Boulder, CO

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineUtah -19Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusUtah -14.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUtah -19Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward ColoradoOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUtah -18Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward ColoradoExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineUtah -19Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward ColoradoOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Utah -18Opening Market ConsensusUtah -14.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward ColoradoSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Utah -18Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusUtah -14.5Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward ColoradoExplore similar gaps Colorado has extra rest~1 pt toward Colorado

Colorado has extra rest

~1 pt toward Colorado

Colorado has 6.9 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward Colorado; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Colorado enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Colorado enters after losing its previous lined game by 22 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Colorado enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Colorado enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Cold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Colorado has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

Colorado is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Colorado is a 14.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Colorado lost the most recent meeting with Utah.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Colorado lost the most recent meeting with Utah by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

Colorado is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

Utah has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Utah has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Utah is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Utah is favored by 14.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Utah begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Utah ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Defense travels Contradictory evidence

Utah is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.

Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Utah faces materially stronger Houston in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Trap game Inconclusive

Utah is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Houston.

Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Utah 27 · Colorado 24
Pregame OV Line
Utah -19
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Utah -14.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Utah -18
Actual margin
Utah by 3

Observed 13h 12m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Utah 92.6%Colorado 7.4%

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Open until scheduled kickoff

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Compare Teams

UtahVSColorado

Model View

Overall Rating+16.9 · #14+0.6 · #70
Offense Rating+10.5-0.7
Defense Rating+6.4+1.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.350.08
Offense Success Rate49.5%34.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.070.19
Defense Success Rate Allowed38.1%42.3%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total8.84.0
Playoff Odds72.9%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank50th25th