Offense#68
+0.2vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.19 #52 FBSSuccess rate45.0% #38 FBS
Big 12 · #60 of 138
Iowa State
Implied Strength+1.9vs. FBS average · ±4.1
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility39%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule51stof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Bowling GreenWeek 3 · OV Line ISU -22 · 96% win chance →Toughest remaining test#20 BYUWeek 6 · 12% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 1.4 rating points.
Defense#55
+1.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.09 #35 FBSSuccess rate allowed39.1% #42 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Iowa State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (5.1 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 39.0%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.3%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.3% total
Auto-bid0.2%
At-large0.1%
Outside field99.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
2% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Iowa State in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production1.7%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class2ndof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production53rdof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.9Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Southeast Missouri StateFCS
OV Win<0.01%10Spread:ISU -36.5vs.ISU -30.5
1 FactorSoutheast Missouri State at Iowa State · Ames, IA · Jack Trice Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Iowa State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS48%21–23–2 against consensus
Average line gap3.5 pts54% inside 3 points · 25 of 46
Factor coverage24%11 of 46 games
Factor signals75% aligned9 of 12 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample46 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Iowa State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 5 | 1.2 pts toward Iowa State | 80%4 of 5 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 5 | 0.3 pts toward Iowa State | 80%4 of 5 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 2 | 0.8 pts toward Iowa State | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 46 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Iowa State -20 | Iowa State -14 | 5.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.8 pts toward opponents | W 20–13 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. KansasHome | Iowa State -5.5 | Iowa State -3.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 38–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at TCUAway | Iowa State +5.5 | Iowa State +7.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 20–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Iowa State -4 | Iowa State -7.5 | 3.3 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Iowa State | L 19–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. BYUHome | Iowa State -1 | Iowa State -2.5 | 1.5 pts toward Iowa State | 1.1 pts toward Iowa State | 0.4 pts toward Iowa State | L 27–41 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | at ColoradoAway | Iowa State -5 | Iowa State -3 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | L 17–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at CincinnatiAway | Iowa State +2.5 | Iowa State +1.5 | 1.1 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 1.1 pts toward Iowa State | L 30–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. ArizonaHome | Iowa State -5 | Iowa State -4 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 39–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at Arkansas StateAway | Iowa State -21 | Iowa State -21 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward Iowa State | W 24–16 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. IowaHome | Iowa State -12 | Iowa State -3 | 9.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 9.2 pts toward opponents | W 16–13 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. South DakotaHome | Iowa State -23 | Iowa State -15 | 8.2 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward Iowa State | 9.9 pts toward opponents | W 55–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Kansas StateNeutral | Iowa State +6 | Iowa State +3 | 2.9 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Iowa State | W 24–21 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W15 | vs. Arizona StateNeutral | Iowa State -4 | Iowa State -1.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 19–45 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Iowa State -4.5 | Iowa State -2 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 29–21 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at UtahAway | Iowa State -5 | Iowa State -6.5 | 1.4 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Iowa State | W 31–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. CincinnatiHome | Iowa State -10.5 | Iowa State -7 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.3 pts toward opponents | W 34–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. KansasNeutral | Iowa State -8 | Iowa State -2.5 | 5.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.3 pts toward opponents | L 36–45 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. Texas TechHome | Iowa State -14 | Iowa State -13.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Iowa State | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 22–23 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. UCFHome | Iowa State -11.5 | Iowa State -13 | 1.4 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Iowa State | W 38–35 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | at West VirginiaAway | Iowa State -3 | Iowa State -3 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 28–16 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. BaylorHome | Iowa State -11 | Iowa State -13 | 1.9 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Iowa State | W 43–21 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | at HoustonAway | Iowa State -14 | Iowa State -16.5 | 2.3 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 2.3 pts toward Iowa State | W 20–0 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | at IowaAway | Iowa State +7.5 | Iowa State +3 | 4.3 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 4.3 pts toward Iowa State | W 20–19 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. North DakotaHome | Iowa State -28 | Iowa State -30.5 | 2.5 pts toward Iowa State | 2.5 pts toward Iowa State | No net direction | W 21–3 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | at Kansas StateAway | Iowa State +14.5 | Iowa State +9.5 | 4.8 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 4.8 pts toward Iowa State | W 42–35 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. TexasHome | Iowa State +13 | Iowa State +7.5 | 5.5 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 5.5 pts toward Iowa State | L 16–26 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at BYUAway | Iowa State -2.5 | Iowa State -7.5 | 4.9 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Iowa State | W 45–13 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. KansasHome | Iowa State +2.5 | Iowa State -2.5 | 4.9 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Iowa State | L 21–28 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at BaylorAway | Iowa State -1.5 | Iowa State -3 | 1.6 pts toward Iowa State | 1.7 pts toward Iowa State | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 30–18 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | at CincinnatiAway | Iowa State +2.5 | Iowa State +5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 30–10 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. TCUHome | Iowa State +8.5 | Iowa State +6.5 | 2.2 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Iowa State | W 27–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at OklahomaAway | Iowa State +28.5 | Iowa State +20 | 8.5 pts toward Iowa State | 2.8 pts toward Iowa State | 5.7 pts toward Iowa State | L 20–50 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Iowa State -12.5 | Iowa State -3.5 | 8.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.9 pts toward opponents | W 34–27 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. IowaHome | Iowa State -3 | Iowa State +3.5 | 6.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.7 pts toward opponents | L 13–20 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Northern IowaHome | Iowa State -19 | Iowa State -7.5 | 11.7 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward Iowa State | 12.4 pts toward opponents | W 30–9 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2022 · W13 | at TCUAway | Iowa State +7.5 | Iowa State +9.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | L 14–62 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. Texas TechHome | Iowa State -5 | Iowa State -3.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | L 10–14 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Iowa State +1 | Iowa State -3 | 3.8 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 3.8 pts toward Iowa State | L 14–20 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Iowa State -6 | Iowa State -6.5 | 0.7 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Iowa State | W 31–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. OklahomaHome | Iowa State +1.5 | Iowa State +1.5 | 0.1 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Iowa State | L 13–27 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at TexasAway | Iowa State +15.5 | Iowa State +15.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Iowa State -2.5 | Iowa State +1 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.3 pts toward opponents | L 9–10 | P | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at KansasAway | Iowa State -9.5 | Iowa State -3.5 | 6.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.1 pts toward opponents | L 11–14 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. BaylorHome | Iowa State +4 | Iowa State -2.5 | 6.4 pts toward Iowa State | None identified | 6.4 pts toward Iowa State | L 24–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | at IowaAway | Iowa State -1.5 | Iowa State +3.5 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.9 pts toward opponents | W 10–7 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Southeast Missouri StateHome | Iowa State -29.5 | Iowa State -33.5 | 3.8 pts toward Iowa State | 2.6 pts toward Iowa State | 1.2 pts toward Iowa State | W 42–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 46 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.