Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyWest Virginia at Iowa State
Week 5 · Oct 3Jack Trice Stadium · Ames, IA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Iowa State -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Iowa State -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusIowa State -311-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Iowa State -311-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward West VirginiaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa State enters after losing its previous lined game by 14 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Iowa State faces materially stronger BYU in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
West Virginia enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
West Virginia enters after losing its previous lined game by 17 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
West Virginia was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
West Virginia lost the most recent meeting with Iowa State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
West Virginia is the underdog in a matchup played at least 6 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?West Virginia 42 · Iowa State 45
- Pregame OV Line
- Iowa State -6
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Iowa State -3
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Iowa State by 3
Observed 3h 32m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineIowa State -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Iowa State -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market Consensus
West Virginia -1.5Earliest observed 2-book consensus
West Virginia -1.5Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
West Virginia 31.3%Iowa State 68.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Iowa State -3
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