Close-win regression Developing estimate
BYU enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyIowa State at BYU
Week 6 · Oct 9LaVell Edwards Stadium · Provo, UT
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
BYU -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
BYU -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusBYU -11.511-book consensus · observed Oct 9, 7:49 PM EDT
BYU -11.511-book consensus · observed Oct 9, 7:49 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate
BYU has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
BYU has covered at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
BYU is favored by 14.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
BYU begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
BYU ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
BYU faces materially stronger Notre Dame in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
BYU is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Notre Dame.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Iowa State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Iowa State is a 14.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Iowa State is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Iowa State lost the most recent meeting with BYU.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Iowa State lost the most recent meeting with BYU by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Iowa State 10 · BYU 24
- Pregame OV Line
- BYU -11.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- BYU -11.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- BYU by 14
Observed 2h 25m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineBYU -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
BYU -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusBYU -14Earliest observed 2-book consensus
BYU -14Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Iowa State 18.4%BYU 81.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · BYU -11.5
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 9.