Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBowling Green at Iowa State
Week 3 · Sep 19Jack Trice Stadium · Ames, IA
Matchup View
Opening Line
Iowa State -22Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Iowa State -22Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusIowa State -23.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Iowa State -23.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Iowa StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Iowa State is favored by 23.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Iowa State faces materially stronger Utah in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Iowa State is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Utah.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green enters after losing its previous lined game by 49 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green is a 23.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineIowa State -22Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Iowa State -22Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIowa State -23Based on 2 books
Iowa State -23Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Bowling Green 4.3%Iowa State 95.7%
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Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Iowa State -23.5
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