Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State

Week 1 · Sep 5Jack Trice Stadium · Ames, IA
Southeast Missouri StateFCS
@
Iowa State1–1+1.9 vs. avg · #60

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineIowa State -36.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusIowa State -29.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineIowa State -36.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Iowa StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineIowa State -38Unexplained Gap~8.5 pts toward Southeast Missouri StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineIowa State -36.5Factor adjustment (Open)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Iowa State -36.5Opening Market ConsensusIowa State -29.5Unexplained at open~7 pts toward Southeast Missouri StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward Iowa StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Iowa State -38Current Market ConsensusIowa State -29.5Unexplained gap~8.5 pts toward Southeast Missouri StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward Iowa StateAt open < 0.5 pts toward Southeast Missouri StateIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Iowa State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward Iowa StateAt open < 0.5 pts toward Southeast Missouri StateIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Iowa State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Iowa State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 78%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.5 points toward Iowa State (average-estimate range 0.7–2.5), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Southeast Missouri State 10 · Iowa State 38
Pregame OV Line
Iowa State -36.5
Final recorded market
Iowa State -29.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Iowa State -38
Actual margin
Iowa State by 28

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Southeast Missouri State 0.3%Iowa State 99.7%

Compare Teams

Southeast Missouri StateVSIowa State

Model View

Overall Rating—+1.9 · #60
Offense Rating—+0.2
Defense Rating—+1.7

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.19
Offense Success Rate—45.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.09
Defense Success Rate Allowed—39.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—4.9
Playoff Odds—0.3%
Strength of Schedule Rank—51st