Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Iowa enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyIowa State at Iowa
Week 2 · Sep 12Kinnick Stadium · Iowa City, IA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Iowa -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Iowa -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusIowa -142-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Iowa -142-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Iowa StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Iowa enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 795 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Iowa is favored by 14.0 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Iowa begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Iowa lost the most recent meeting with Iowa State.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Iowa State is a 14.0-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Iowa State is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 445 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Iowa State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 901 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Iowa State 13 · Iowa 16
- Pregame OV Line
- Iowa -15
- Final recorded market
- Iowa -14
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Iowa by 3
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineIowa -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Iowa -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIowa -13Based on 2 books
Iowa -13Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Iowa State 11.7%Iowa 88.3%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Iowa -14
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