Offense#41
+3.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.17 #69 FBSSuccess rate42.6% #66 FBS
Big 12 · #32 of 138
Arizona
Implied Strength+9.5vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility82%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule49thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Northern IllinoisWeek 3 · OV Line ARIZ -30 · 99% win chance →Toughest remaining test#8 Texas TechWeek 9 · 11% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 1.6 rating points.
Defense#29
+5.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.07 #26 FBSSuccess rate allowed37.9% #27 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Arizona's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (7.0 expected wins), with a 3% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 82.3%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
2.8%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached2.8% total
Auto-bid0.8%
At-large2.0%
Outside field97.2%
Conference title0.8%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Arizona. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production64.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class45thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production28thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.3Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Arizona through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS53%24–21 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts58% inside 3 points · 26 of 45
Factor coverage22%10 of 45 games
Factor signals78% aligned7 of 9 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Arizona games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 5 | 0.6 pts toward Arizona | 75%3 of 4 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 5 | 0.1 pts toward Arizona | 80%4 of 5 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Arizona StateAway | Arizona +3 | Arizona -2 | 5.1 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 5.1 pts toward Arizona | W 23–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. BaylorHome | Arizona -6 | Arizona -6.5 | 0.7 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Arizona | W 41–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at CincinnatiAway | Arizona +5 | Arizona +6 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 30–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. KansasHome | Arizona -4.5 | Arizona -5.5 | 1.2 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Arizona | W 24–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at ColoradoAway | Arizona -1.5 | Arizona -3.5 | 2.0 pts toward Arizona | 1.8 pts toward Arizona | 0.2 pts toward Arizona | W 52–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | at HoustonAway | Arizona +2 | Arizona -2 | 4.0 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 4.0 pts toward Arizona | L 28–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. BYUHome | Arizona +3 | Arizona +2.5 | 0.7 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Arizona | L 27–33 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Arizona -21.5 | Arizona -21.5 | No net direction | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward Arizona | W 41–13 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W5 | at Iowa StateAway | Arizona +5 | Arizona +4 | 0.9 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Arizona | L 14–39 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Arizona -8.5 | Arizona +1.5 | 10.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 10.0 pts toward opponents | W 23–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Weber StateHome | Arizona -38.5 | Arizona -31.5 | 6.8 pts toward opponents | 0.7 pts toward Arizona | 7.5 pts toward opponents | W 48–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Hawai'iHome | Arizona -13.5 | Arizona -15.5 | 2.1 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Arizona | W 40–6 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Arizona +4.5 | Arizona +7.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | L 7–49 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at TCUAway | Arizona +9 | Arizona +10.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 28–49 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. HoustonHome | Arizona -6.5 | Arizona -1 | 5.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.4 pts toward opponents | W 27–3 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | at UCFAway | Arizona +6 | Arizona +6.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 12–56 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Arizona +1 | Arizona -5.5 | 6.3 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 6.3 pts toward Arizona | L 26–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. ColoradoHome | Arizona -3.5 | Arizona -2.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 7–34 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | at BYUAway | Arizona +4.5 | Arizona +2.5 | 1.8 pts toward Arizona | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward Arizona | L 19–41 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. Texas TechHome | Arizona -5.5 | Arizona -6 | 0.6 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Arizona | L 22–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | at UtahAway | Arizona +17 | Arizona +7.5 | 9.3 pts toward Arizona | 1.7 pts toward Arizona | 7.6 pts toward Arizona | W 23–10 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W3 | at Kansas StateAway | Arizona +14 | Arizona +7 | 6.8 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 6.8 pts toward Arizona | L 7–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Northern ArizonaHome | Arizona -35 | Arizona -40 | 4.7 pts toward Arizona | 0.4 pts toward Arizona | 4.3 pts toward Arizona | W 22–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | at Arizona StateAway | Arizona -11 | Arizona -12.5 | 1.5 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 1.5 pts toward Arizona | W 59–23 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. UtahHome | Arizona +4 | Arizona -2.5 | 6.3 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 6.3 pts toward Arizona | W 42–18 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at ColoradoAway | Arizona -6 | Arizona -8 | 1.9 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Arizona | W 34–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. UCLAHome | Arizona +3 | Arizona +2.5 | 0.7 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Arizona | W 27–10 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. Oregon StateHome | Arizona +9 | Arizona +3 | 6.0 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 6.0 pts toward Arizona | W 27–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | at Washington StateAway | Arizona +10 | Arizona +7.5 | 2.7 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 2.7 pts toward Arizona | W 44–6 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at USCAway | Arizona +23.5 | Arizona +21 | 2.6 pts toward Arizona | 2.4 pts toward Arizona | 0.2 pts toward Arizona | L 41–43 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. WashingtonHome | Arizona +19.5 | Arizona +20 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 24–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at StanfordAway | Arizona -9.5 | Arizona -13 | 3.3 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Arizona | W 21–20 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | at Mississippi StateAway | Arizona +14 | Arizona +9 | 5.2 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 5.2 pts toward Arizona | L 24–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Northern ArizonaHome | Arizona -27.5 | Arizona -28.5 | 1.0 pts toward Arizona | 2.5 pts toward Arizona | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 38–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Arizona -3 | Arizona -4 | 1.2 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Arizona | W 38–35 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. Washington StateHome | Arizona +6.5 | Arizona +4 | 2.5 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Arizona | L 20–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at UCLAAway | Arizona +15.5 | Arizona +20 | 4.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.7 pts toward opponents | W 34–28 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at UtahAway | Arizona +20.5 | Arizona +18 | 2.9 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Arizona | L 20–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. USCHome | Arizona +17.5 | Arizona +14 | 3.6 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Arizona | L 37–45 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at WashingtonAway | Arizona +15.5 | Arizona +14.5 | 0.8 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Arizona | L 39–49 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. OregonHome | Arizona +12.5 | Arizona +13.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 22–49 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. ColoradoHome | Arizona -11 | Arizona -18 | 6.8 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 6.8 pts toward Arizona | W 43–20 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at CaliforniaAway | Arizona +4 | Arizona +3.5 | 0.4 pts toward Arizona | None identified | 0.4 pts toward Arizona | L 31–49 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. North Dakota StateHome | Arizona -3.5 | Arizona +3 | 6.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.7 pts toward opponents | W 31–28 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | Arizona +4 | Arizona +12.5 | 8.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.3 pts toward opponents | L 17–39 | L | None identified |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.