Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyArizona State at Arizona
Week 13 · Nov 27Arizona Stadium · Tucson, AZ
Matchup View
Opening Line
Arizona -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusArizona -4.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Arizona -4.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Arizona StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Arizona begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Arizona ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona State enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Arizona State lost the most recent meeting with Arizona.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Arizona State lost the most recent meeting with Arizona by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Arizona State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineArizona -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusArizona -4.5Based on 1 book
Arizona -4.5Based on 1 bookWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Arizona State 35.0%Arizona 65.0%
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Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Arizona -4.5
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