Offense#56
+1.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.13 #89 FBSSuccess rate39.8% #104 FBS
Big 12 · #41 of 138
Arizona State
Implied Strength+7.1vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility65%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule33rdof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat KansasWeek 3 · OV Line ASU -2.5 · 57% win chance →Toughest remaining test#8 Texas TechWeek 7 · 8% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 3.5 rating points.
Defense#32
+5.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.10 #44 FBSSuccess rate allowed40.8% #58 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Arizona State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (6.1 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 65.0%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
1.1%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached1.1% total
Auto-bid0.8%
At-large0.3%
Outside field98.9%
Conference title0.8%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
16% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Arizona State in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Arizona State ranks 22nd of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production15.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class44thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production22ndof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total6.6Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered
Morgan State at Arizona State · Tempe, AZ · Mountain America Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Arizona State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS56%24–19–2 against consensus
Average line gap3.6 pts53% inside 3 points · 24 of 45
Factor coverage29%13 of 45 games
Factor signals56% aligned9 of 16 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Arizona State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 9 | 0.2 pts toward Arizona State | 44%4 of 9 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 6 | 2.9 pts toward Arizona State | 67%4 of 6 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.8 pts toward Arizona State | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. ArizonaHome | Arizona State -3 | Arizona State +2 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.1 pts toward opponents | L 7–23 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at ColoradoAway | Arizona State -6.5 | Arizona State -7 | 0.7 pts toward Arizona State | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Arizona State | W 42–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Arizona State -14.5 | Arizona State -10 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Arizona State | 5.3 pts toward opponents | W 25–23 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | at Iowa StateAway | Arizona State +4 | Arizona State +7.5 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.3 pts toward opponents | W 24–19 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. HoustonHome | Arizona State -9.5 | Arizona State -7.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | L 16–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Texas TechHome | Arizona State +7.5 | Arizona State +8 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 26–22 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at UtahAway | Arizona State +7.5 | Arizona State +9.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | L 10–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. TCUHome | Arizona State -1.5 | Arizona State -3 | 1.3 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Arizona State | W 27–24 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at BaylorAway | Arizona State +1.5 | Arizona State +3 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Texas StateHome | Arizona State -15.5 | Arizona State -18.5 | 3.0 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Arizona State | W 34–15 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at Mississippi StateAway | Arizona State -0.5 | Arizona State -6 | 5.1 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 5.1 pts toward Arizona State | L 20–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Northern ArizonaHome | Arizona State -35.5 | Arizona State -30 | 5.6 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward Arizona State | 7.8 pts toward opponents | W 38–19 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W15 | vs. Iowa StateNeutral | Arizona State +4 | Arizona State +1.5 | 2.5 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Arizona State | W 45–19 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | at ArizonaAway | Arizona State -4.5 | Arizona State -7.5 | 3.0 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Arizona State | W 49–7 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. BYUHome | Arizona State -1 | Arizona State -3.5 | 2.4 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Arizona State | W 28–23 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at Kansas StateAway | Arizona State +10 | Arizona State +7.5 | 2.6 pts toward Arizona State | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 3.7 pts toward Arizona State | W 24–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. UCFHome | Arizona State 0 | Arizona State -2.5 | 2.5 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Arizona State | W 35–31 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Arizona State +4.5 | Arizona State -5 | 9.3 pts toward Arizona State | 1.8 pts toward Arizona State | 7.6 pts toward Arizona State | W 42–21 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | at CincinnatiAway | Arizona State +5 | Arizona State +5 | 0.1 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Arizona State | L 14–24 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. UtahHome | Arizona State +7 | Arizona State +5.5 | 1.4 pts toward Arizona State | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 3.2 pts toward Arizona State | W 27–19 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. KansasHome | Arizona State +2.5 | Arizona State -2.5 | 5.1 pts toward Arizona State | 1.1 pts toward Arizona State | 4.1 pts toward Arizona State | W 35–31 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W4 | at Texas TechAway | Arizona State +2 | Arizona State +4.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | L 22–30 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | Arizona State -5.5 | Arizona State -6.5 | 0.8 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Arizona State | W 30–23 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. ArizonaHome | Arizona State +11 | Arizona State +12.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | L 23–59 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. OregonHome | Arizona State +28.5 | Arizona State +22 | 6.4 pts toward Arizona State | 2.8 pts toward Arizona State | 3.6 pts toward Arizona State | L 13–49 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W11 | at UCLAAway | Arizona State +18.5 | Arizona State +14 | 4.5 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 4.5 pts toward Arizona State | W 17–7 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at UtahAway | Arizona State +20 | Arizona State +10.5 | 9.5 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 9.5 pts toward Arizona State | L 3–55 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. Washington StateHome | Arizona State +10.5 | Arizona State +4.5 | 5.9 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 5.9 pts toward Arizona State | W 38–27 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | at WashingtonAway | Arizona State +34.5 | Arizona State +28 | 6.7 pts toward Arizona State | 5.4 pts toward Arizona State | 1.2 pts toward Arizona State | L 7–15 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. ColoradoHome | Arizona State +8 | Arizona State +3 | 4.8 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 4.8 pts toward Arizona State | L 24–27 | P | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at CaliforniaAway | Arizona State +20 | Arizona State +12.5 | 7.5 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 7.5 pts toward Arizona State | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. USCHome | Arizona State +39 | Arizona State +34.5 | 4.5 pts toward Arizona State | 2.6 pts toward Arizona State | 1.9 pts toward Arizona State | L 28–42 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Arizona State +8.5 | Arizona State +2.5 | 6.0 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 6.0 pts toward Arizona State | L 15–27 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Southern UtahHome | Arizona State -24.5 | Arizona State -34 | 9.7 pts toward Arizona State | 3.3 pts toward Arizona State | 6.4 pts toward Arizona State | W 24–21 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2022 · W13 | at ArizonaAway | Arizona State +3 | Arizona State +4 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 35–38 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. Oregon StateHome | Arizona State +10 | Arizona State +7.5 | 2.5 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Arizona State | L 7–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at Washington StateAway | Arizona State +11 | Arizona State +9.5 | 1.5 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 1.5 pts toward Arizona State | L 18–28 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. UCLAHome | Arizona State +11 | Arizona State +11 | 0.1 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Arizona State | L 36–50 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | at ColoradoAway | Arizona State -11.5 | Arizona State -13 | 1.4 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Arizona State | W 42–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at StanfordAway | Arizona State +4 | Arizona State +3 | 1.2 pts toward Arizona State | 1.8 pts toward Arizona State | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 14–15 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. WashingtonHome | Arizona State +12.5 | Arizona State +13.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 45–38 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at USCAway | Arizona State +19 | Arizona State +24.5 | 5.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.3 pts toward opponents | L 25–42 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. UtahHome | Arizona State +18 | Arizona State +17 | 1.2 pts toward Arizona State | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Arizona State | L 13–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Arizona State +3 | Arizona State +12 | 8.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.8 pts toward opponents | L 17–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Northern ArizonaHome | Arizona State -28.5 | Arizona State -25.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | 1.9 pts toward Arizona State | 5.1 pts toward opponents | W 40–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.