Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyColorado at Arizona State
Week 10 · Nov 7Mountain America Stadium · Tempe, AZ
Matchup View
Opening Line
Arizona State -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona State -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusArizona State -311-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Arizona State -311-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward ColoradoExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Colorado enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Colorado lost the most recent meeting with Arizona State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Colorado lost the most recent meeting with Arizona State by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Colorado is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Colorado faces materially stronger Houston in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineArizona State -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona State -4.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusArizona State -3Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Arizona State -3Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Colorado 36.7%Arizona State 63.3%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Arizona State -3
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