Morgan State at Arizona State

Week 1 · Sep 5Mountain America Stadium · Tempe, AZ
Morgan StateFCS
@
Arizona State4–4+2.4 vs. avg · #58

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineArizona State -46Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusArizona State -43.58-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 9:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineArizona State -46Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Morgan StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineArizona State -45Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Morgan StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineArizona State -46Factor adjustment (Open)~3 pts toward Morgan StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Arizona State -43Opening Market ConsensusArizona State -43.5Unexplained at openNone at displayed precisionSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward Arizona StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Arizona State -45Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusArizona State -43.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward Morgan StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1 pt toward Morgan StateAt open ~3 pts toward Morgan StateIn-week ~2 pts toward Arizona State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1 pt toward Morgan StateAt open ~3 pts toward Morgan StateIn-week ~2 pts toward Arizona State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Arizona State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 92%. Historically, the market shaded about 0.9 points toward Morgan State, but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Morgan State 7 · Arizona State 70
Pregame OV Line
Arizona State -46
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Arizona State -43.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Arizona State -45
Actual margin
Arizona State by 63

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Morgan State <0.01%Arizona State >99.9%

Compare Teams

Morgan StateVSArizona State

Model View

Overall Rating—+2.4 · #58
Offense Rating—-0.5
Defense Rating—+3.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.13
Offense Success Rate—39.8%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed—40.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—6.6
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—34th