Baylor at Arizona State

Week 5 · Oct 3Mountain America Stadium · Tempe, AZ

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineArizona State -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusArizona State -3.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineArizona State -3Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Arizona StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineArizona State -4Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward BaylorExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineArizona State -3Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Arizona StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Arizona State -4Opening Market ConsensusArizona State -4.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward Arizona StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Arizona State -4Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusArizona State -3.5Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward BaylorExplore similar gaps Arizona State has extra rest~1 pt toward Arizona State

Arizona State has extra rest

~1 pt toward Arizona State

Arizona State has 6.6 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.0 points toward Arizona State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Arizona State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Baylor lost the most recent meeting with Arizona State.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Baylor 55 · Arizona State 19
Pregame OV Line
Arizona State -3
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Arizona State -3.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Arizona State -4
Actual margin
Baylor by 36

Observed 14h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Baylor 41.3%Arizona State 58.7%

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Compare Teams

BaylorVSArizona State

Model View

Overall Rating+9.3 · #38+2.4 · #58
Offense Rating+5.8-0.5
Defense Rating+3.5+3.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.190.13
Offense Success Rate44.7%39.8%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.170.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed43.7%40.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.96.6
Playoff Odds1.0%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank43rd34th