Offense#38
+4.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.21 #34 FBSSuccess rate47.9% #13 FBS
Big 12 · #50 of 138
Kansas
Implied Strength+4.8vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility49%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule48thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Arizona StateWeek 3 · OV Line KU +2.5 · 43% win chance →Toughest remaining test#20 BYUWeek 12 · 29% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 3.2 rating points.
Defense#59
+0.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.24 #117 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.2% #64 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Kansas's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.5 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–8 winsBowl eligible 49.3%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.6%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.6% total
Auto-bid0.4%
At-large0.2%
Outside field99.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Isaiah Marshall enters with limited established experience
Isaiah Marshall enters the season with only 3 career passing attempts. That uncertainty can matter more to an individual spread than to an aggregate season forecast.
22 comparable openers averaged about 0.8 points toward the developing quarterback's team. 1 upcoming matchup carries the Factor.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
18% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Kansas in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production18.1%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class23rdof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production43rdof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.9Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 4Suggested side did not cover
Long Island University at Kansas · Lawrence, KS · Memorial Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Kansas through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS52%23–21–2 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts65% inside 3 points · 30 of 46
Factor coverage24%11 of 46 games
Factor signals90% aligned9 of 10 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample46 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Kansas games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 100%5 of 5 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 5 | 0.1 pts toward Kansas | 80%4 of 5 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 46 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. UtahHome | Kansas +11 | Kansas +10 | 0.8 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Kansas | L 21–31 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Iowa StateAway | Kansas +5.5 | Kansas +3.5 | 1.9 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Kansas | L 14–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at ArizonaAway | Kansas +4.5 | Kansas +5.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 20–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Kansas -26 | Kansas -24.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 3.4 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Kansas | W 38–21 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Kansas -2.5 | Kansas -3.5 | 0.8 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Kansas | L 17–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at Texas TechAway | Kansas +13 | Kansas +13.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 17–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at UCFAway | Kansas -0.5 | Kansas -4 | 3.3 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Kansas | W 27–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. CincinnatiHome | Kansas -4 | Kansas -5.5 | 1.3 pts toward Kansas | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.1 pts toward Kansas | L 34–37 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Kansas -11 | Kansas -12.5 | 1.6 pts toward Kansas | 1.1 pts toward Kansas | 0.5 pts toward Kansas | W 41–10 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | at MissouriAway | Kansas +19.5 | Kansas +6.5 | 12.9 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 12.9 pts toward Kansas | L 31–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. WagnerHome | Kansas -47.5 | Kansas -46 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 0.7 pts toward Kansas | W 46–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Fresno StateHome | Kansas -16 | Kansas -14 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | No net direction | 2.1 pts toward opponents | W 31–7 | W | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2024 · W14 | at BaylorAway | Kansas +1.5 | Kansas -1.5 | 3.0 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Kansas | L 17–45 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. ColoradoNeutral | Kansas +3 | Kansas +1.5 | 1.7 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Kansas | W 37–21 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at BYUAway | Kansas +4 | Kansas +2.5 | 1.6 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Kansas | W 17–13 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. Iowa StateNeutral | Kansas +8 | Kansas +2.5 | 5.3 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 5.3 pts toward Kansas | W 45–36 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at Kansas StateAway | Kansas +12 | Kansas +10 | 2.1 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Kansas | L 27–29 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. HoustonNeutral | Kansas -11 | Kansas -4.5 | 6.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.6 pts toward opponents | W 42–14 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | at Arizona StateAway | Kansas -2.5 | Kansas +2.5 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward opponents | L 31–35 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. TCUNeutral | Kansas -1 | Kansas -1.5 | 0.6 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Kansas | L 27–38 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | at West VirginiaAway | Kansas 0 | Kansas +1.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 28–32 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | at IllinoisAway | Kansas +1 | Kansas -4.5 | 5.5 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 5.5 pts toward Kansas | L 17–23 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. LindenwoodNeutral | Kansas -49.5 | Kansas -48.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 1.9 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Kansas | W 48–3 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | at CincinnatiAway | Kansas -6.5 | Kansas -7.5 | 1.0 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Kansas | W 49–16 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Kansas +8.5 | Kansas +7.5 | 0.9 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Kansas | L 27–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. Texas TechHome | Kansas -2 | Kansas -3.5 | 1.5 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 1.5 pts toward Kansas | L 13–16 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at Iowa StateAway | Kansas -2.5 | Kansas +2.5 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.9 pts toward opponents | W 28–21 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. OklahomaHome | Kansas +14 | Kansas +7 | 7.0 pts toward Kansas | 1.1 pts toward Kansas | 5.9 pts toward Kansas | W 38–33 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Kansas -7 | Kansas -3 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | L 32–39 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. UCFHome | Kansas +2 | Kansas +2 | 0.2 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Kansas | W 51–22 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at TexasAway | Kansas +17 | Kansas +16.5 | 0.7 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Kansas | L 14–40 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. BYUHome | Kansas -3.5 | Kansas -9.5 | 6.1 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 6.1 pts toward Kansas | W 38–27 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. IllinoisHome | Kansas -11 | Kansas -3.5 | 7.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.3 pts toward opponents | W 34–23 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Missouri StateHome | Kansas -25 | Kansas -32.5 | 7.6 pts toward Kansas | 2.5 pts toward Kansas | 5.0 pts toward Kansas | W 48–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | at Kansas StateAway | Kansas +12.5 | Kansas +12 | 0.5 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Kansas | L 27–47 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. TexasHome | Kansas +12 | Kansas +9 | 2.8 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 2.8 pts toward Kansas | L 14–55 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at Texas TechAway | Kansas +4 | Kansas +3.5 | 0.4 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 0.4 pts toward Kansas | L 28–43 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Kansas +6.5 | Kansas -3 | 9.5 pts toward Kansas | 1.1 pts toward Kansas | 8.4 pts toward Kansas | W 37–16 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W8 | at BaylorAway | Kansas +12 | Kansas +10.5 | 1.4 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Kansas | L 23–35 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at OklahomaAway | Kansas +13 | Kansas +10.5 | 2.6 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Kansas | L 42–52 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. TCUHome | Kansas +9 | Kansas +7 | 1.8 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Kansas | L 31–38 | P | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Kansas +9.5 | Kansas +3.5 | 6.1 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 6.1 pts toward Kansas | W 14–11 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. DukeHome | Kansas -10 | Kansas -7 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 35–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | at HoustonAway | Kansas +11 | Kansas +8.5 | 2.6 pts toward Kansas | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Kansas | W 48–30 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | at West VirginiaAway | Kansas +6 | Kansas +14 | 8.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.0 pts toward opponents | W 55–42 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Tennessee TechHome | Kansas -21.5 | Kansas -30.5 | 9.0 pts toward Kansas | 2.2 pts toward Kansas | 6.8 pts toward Kansas | W 56–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 46 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.