SEC · #24 of 138

Missouri

Implied Strength+12.7vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds6%make the 12-team field
Conference Title1%win SEC
Strength of Schedule4thof 138 FBS teams

Schedule lens

What matters next

The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.

Next matchupvs. TroyWeek 3 · OV Line MIZ -24 · 97% win chance →Toughest remaining test#3 TexasWeek 10 · 16% site win chance · View matchup →

Team identity

Where the strength lives

Defense projects as the stronger unit by 2.8 rating points.

Offense#30
+5.0vs. FBS average
+5.0
2025 PPA/play0.21 #35 FBSSuccess rate45.4% #35 FBS
Defense#18
+7.8vs. FBS average
+7.8
2025 PPA/play allowed0.03 #10 FBSSuccess rate allowed34.9% #7 FBS

2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →

Season outlook · 50,000 simulations

How Missouri's 2026 could unfold

The current projection is 7–5 (6.7 expected wins), with a 6% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.

Range of outcomes

Projected win distribution

50,000 simulated seasons
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 76.6%
2%7%15%23%23%17%9%4%Market 6.6<4456789>9
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total

Postseason path

2026 playoff outlook

50,000 simulations
6.4%Make the 12-team field

Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.

How the field is reached6.4% total
Auto-bid0.6%
At-large5.8%
Outside field93.6%
Conference title0.6%

What could move the outlook

Biggest questions

Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.

Personnel replacement

Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production

Missouri ranks 14th of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.

Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details

The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.

Returning Production42.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class19thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production14thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total6.6Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 3Suggested side covered
Arkansas-Pine BluffFCS
OV Win<0.01%14
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win>99.9%54
Spread:MIZ -54.5vs.MIZ -55.5
1 Factor
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri · Columbia, MO · Memorial Stadium
Final · Sep 11
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win66%38
#50Kansas(1–1)
OV Win34%21
Spread:MIZ -5.5vs.MIZ -5.5
Missouri at Kansas · Lawrence, KS · Memorial Stadium
6:00 PM · Sep 19
#96Troy(2–0)
OV Win3%
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win97%
Spread:MIZ -24vs.MIZ -27
Troy at Missouri · Columbia, MO · Memorial Stadium
6:45 PM · Sep 26
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win54%
#33Mississippi State(2–0)
OV Win46%
Spread:MIZ -1.5vs.—
Missouri at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium
11:00 PM · Oct 2
#16Florida(2–0)
OV Win57%
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win43%
Spread:FLA -2vs.—
Florida at Missouri · Columbia, MO · Memorial Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 9
#11Texas A&M(2–0)
OV Win65%
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win35%
Spread:TA&M -5vs.—
Texas A&M at Missouri · Columbia, MO · Memorial Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 16
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win27%
#15Ole Miss(2–0)
OV Win73%
Spread:MISS -8vs.—
Missouri at Ole Miss · Oxford, MS · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — AFTERNOON: 3:30 - 4:30pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 30
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win72%
#57Arkansas(1–1)
OV Win28%
Spread:MIZ -7.5vs.—
Missouri at Arkansas · Fayetteville, AR · Razorback Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 6
#3Texas(2–0)
OV Win84%
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win16%
Spread:TEX -12.5vs.—
Texas at Missouri · Columbia, MO · Memorial Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
12:00 AM · Nov 14
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win11%
#6Georgia(2–0)
OV Win89%
Spread:UGA -15.5vs.—
Missouri at Georgia · Athens, GA · Sanford Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 20
#44Kentucky(1–1)
OV Win25%
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win75%
Spread:MIZ -8.5vs.—
Kentucky at Missouri · Columbia, MO · Memorial Stadium — NIGHT: 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 27
#10Oklahoma(1–1)
OV Win67%
#24Missouri(2–0)
OV Win33%
Spread:OU -5.5vs.—
Oklahoma at Missouri · Columbia, MO · Memorial Stadium — AFTERNOON: 3:30 - 4:30pm ET start

Pregame evidence · 2022–25

Missouri through the lens

The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.

Market ATS59%24–17–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.7 pts45% inside 3 points · 19 of 42
Factor coverage38%16 of 42 games
Factor signals71% aligned12 of 17 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample42 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25

Explanatory history

Factors present in Missouri games

FactorGamesAverage estimateAligned with marketResearch status
Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty90.5 pts toward opponents56%5 of 9 directional casesSupported · wider uncertainty
Rest Differential80.3 pts toward Missouri88%7 of 8 directional casesSupported
Underlying recordInspect all 42 historical gamesView games
SeasonGameOV baselineMarketMarket gapIdentified adjustmentRemaining gapResultMarket ATSFactors
2025 · W14at ArkansasAwayMissouri 0Missouri -4.54.3 pts toward MissouriNone identified4.3 pts toward MissouriW 31–17WNone identified
2025 · W13at OklahomaAwayMissouri +9Missouri +4.54.3 pts toward MissouriNone identified4.3 pts toward MissouriL 6–17LNone identified
2025 · W12vs. Mississippi StateHomeMissouri -9.5Missouri -7.52.0 pts toward opponentsNone identified2.0 pts toward opponentsW 49–27WNone identified
2025 · W11vs. Texas A&MHomeMissouri +3Missouri +74.1 pts toward opponentsNone identified4.1 pts toward opponentsL 17–38LNone identified
2025 · W9at VanderbiltAwayMissouri -1Missouri +34.1 pts toward opponentsNone identified4.1 pts toward opponentsL 10–17LNone identified
2025 · W8at AuburnAwayMissouri +2.5Missouri -1.54.1 pts toward MissouriNone identified4.1 pts toward MissouriW 23–17WNone identified
2025 · W7vs. AlabamaHomeMissouri +4Missouri +31.1 pts toward Missouri1.1 pts toward MissouriNo net directionL 24–27PRest Differential
2025 · W5vs. MassachusettsHomeMissouri -47Missouri -44.52.4 pts toward opponents10.1 pts toward opponents7.7 pts toward MissouriW 42–6LLopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential
2025 · W4vs. South CarolinaHomeMissouri -15Missouri -105.1 pts toward opponentsNone identified5.1 pts toward opponentsW 29–20LNone identified
2025 · W3vs. LouisianaHomeMissouri -28.5Missouri -27.50.9 pts toward opponents3.7 pts toward opponents2.8 pts toward MissouriW 52–10WLopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty
2025 · W2vs. KansasHomeMissouri -19.5Missouri -6.512.9 pts toward opponentsNone identified12.9 pts toward opponentsW 42–31WNone identified
2025 · W1vs. Central ArkansasHomeMissouri -35Missouri -394.1 pts toward Missouri2.2 pts toward Missouri1.8 pts toward MissouriW 61–6WLopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty
2024 · W14vs. ArkansasHomeMissouri -6.5Missouri -33.3 pts toward opponentsNone identified3.3 pts toward opponentsW 28–21WNone identified
2024 · W13at Mississippi StateAwayMissouri -10.5Missouri -9.51.0 pts toward opponents1.1 pts toward opponents0.1 pts toward MissouriW 39–20WRest Differential
2024 · W12at South CarolinaAwayMissouri +7Missouri +10.53.4 pts toward opponentsNone identified3.4 pts toward opponentsL 30–34WNone identified
2024 · W11vs. OklahomaHomeMissouri -5.5Missouri +3.59.2 pts toward opponents1.0 pts toward Missouri10.3 pts toward opponentsW 30–23WRest Differential
2024 · W9at AlabamaAwayMissouri +15Missouri +160.8 pts toward opponentsNone identified0.8 pts toward opponentsL 0–34LNone identified
2024 · W8vs. AuburnHomeMissouri -8.5Missouri -3.55.1 pts toward opponents1.7 pts toward opponents3.4 pts toward opponentsW 21–17WRest Differential
2024 · W6at Texas A&MAwayMissouri +3Missouri +2.50.5 pts toward Missouri1.8 pts toward Missouri1.3 pts toward opponentsL 10–41LRest Differential
2024 · W4vs. VanderbiltHomeMissouri -21.5Missouri -183.6 pts toward opponents2.2 pts toward opponents1.4 pts toward opponentsW 30–27LLopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty
2024 · W3vs. Boston CollegeHomeMissouri -13.5Missouri -14.50.8 pts toward MissouriNone identified0.8 pts toward MissouriW 27–21LNone identified
2024 · W1vs. Murray StateHomeMissouri -45.5Missouri -50.55.1 pts toward Missouri0.4 pts toward opponents5.6 pts toward MissouriW 51–0WLopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty
2023 · W13at ArkansasAwayMissouri -6.5Missouri -9.53.2 pts toward MissouriNone identified3.2 pts toward MissouriW 48–14WNone identified
2023 · W12vs. FloridaHomeMissouri -9Missouri -12.53.6 pts toward MissouriNone identified3.6 pts toward MissouriW 33–31LNone identified
2023 · W11vs. TennesseeHomeMissouri +4Missouri +22.1 pts toward MissouriNone identified2.1 pts toward MissouriW 36–7WNone identified
2023 · W10at GeorgiaAwayMissouri +17Missouri +14.52.4 pts toward Missouri1.8 pts toward Missouri0.6 pts toward MissouriL 21–30WRest Differential
2023 · W8vs. South CarolinaHomeMissouri -5.5Missouri -7.51.9 pts toward MissouriNone identified1.9 pts toward MissouriW 34–12WNone identified
2023 · W7at KentuckyAwayMissouri +4Missouri +22.2 pts toward MissouriNone identified2.2 pts toward MissouriW 38–21WNone identified
2023 · W6vs. LSUHomeMissouri +11Missouri +64.9 pts toward MissouriNone identified4.9 pts toward MissouriL 39–49LNone identified
2023 · W5at VanderbiltAwayMissouri -13Missouri -13.50.4 pts toward MissouriNone identified0.4 pts toward MissouriW 38–21WNone identified
2023 · W3vs. Kansas StateHomeMissouri +20Missouri +3.516.7 pts toward MissouriNone identified16.7 pts toward MissouriW 30–27WNone identified
2023 · W1vs. South DakotaHomeMissouri -34Missouri -277.2 pts toward opponents1.7 pts toward Missouri9.0 pts toward opponentsW 35–10LLopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty
2022 · W13vs. ArkansasHomeMissouri +5.5Missouri +32.6 pts toward MissouriNone identified2.6 pts toward MissouriW 29–27WNone identified
2022 · W11at TennesseeAwayMissouri +22.5Missouri +193.3 pts toward Missouri2.5 pts toward Missouri0.8 pts toward MissouriL 24–66LLopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty
2022 · W10vs. KentuckyHomeMissouri +4.5Missouri -15.6 pts toward MissouriNone identified5.6 pts toward MissouriL 17–21LNone identified
2022 · W9at South CarolinaAwayMissouri +9.5Missouri +3.56.0 pts toward MissouriNone identified6.0 pts toward MissouriW 23–10WNone identified
2022 · W8vs. VanderbiltHomeMissouri -11Missouri -142.8 pts toward Missouri1.1 pts toward Missouri1.8 pts toward MissouriW 17–14LRest Differential
2022 · W6at FloridaAwayMissouri +14Missouri +113.3 pts toward MissouriNone identified3.3 pts toward MissouriL 17–24WNone identified
2022 · W5vs. GeorgiaHomeMissouri +29Missouri +311.5 pts toward opponents3.4 pts toward Missouri4.9 pts toward opponentsL 22–26WLopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty
2022 · W4at AuburnAwayMissouri +9Missouri +7.51.5 pts toward MissouriNone identified1.5 pts toward MissouriL 14–17WNone identified
2022 · W3vs. Abilene ChristianHomeMissouri -33.5Missouri -31.52.0 pts toward opponents0.3 pts toward Missouri2.3 pts toward opponentsW 34–17LLopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty
2022 · W2at Kansas StateAwayMissouri +6.5Missouri +70.4 pts toward opponentsNone identified0.4 pts toward opponentsL 12–40LNone identified

Sample: 42 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.