Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri

Week 1 · Sep 3Memorial Stadium · Columbia, MO
Arkansas-Pine BluffFCS
@
Missouri2–0+12.7 vs. avg · #24

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineMissouri -54.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusMissouri -54.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineMissouri -54.5Factor Adjustments~4.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineMissouri -50Unexplained Gap~4.5 pts toward MissouriExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineMissouri -54.5Factor adjustment (Open)~6.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Missouri -48Opening Market ConsensusMissouri -54.5Unexplained at open~6.5 pts toward MissouriSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward MissouriOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Missouri -50Current Market ConsensusMissouri -54.5Unexplained gap~4.5 pts toward MissouriExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~4.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffAt open ~6.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffIn-week ~2 pts toward Missouri

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~4.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffAt open ~6.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffIn-week ~2 pts toward Missouri
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Missouri's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 98%. Historically, the market shaded about 4.4 points toward Arkansas-Pine Bluff (average-estimate range 3.1–5.4), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Arkansas-Pine Bluff 14 · Missouri 54
Pregame OV Line
Missouri -54.5
Final recorded market
Missouri -54.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Missouri -50
Actual margin
Missouri by 40

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Arkansas-Pine Bluff <0.01%Missouri >99.9%

Compare Teams

Arkansas-Pine BluffVSMissouri

Model View

Overall Rating—+12.7 · #24
Offense Rating—+5.0
Defense Rating—+7.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.21
Offense Success Rate—45.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.03
Defense Success Rate Allowed—34.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—6.6
Playoff Odds—6.4%
Strength of Schedule Rank—4th