Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri

Week 1 · Sep 3Memorial Stadium · Columbia, MO
Arkansas-Pine BluffFCS
@
Missouri6–2+15.9 vs. avg · #15

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineMissouri -54.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusMissouri -55.58-book consensus · observed Sep 3, 7:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineMissouri -54.5Factor Adjustments~4.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineMissouri -50Unexplained Gap~5.5 pts toward MissouriExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineMissouri -54.5Factor adjustment (Open)~6.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Missouri -48Opening Market ConsensusMissouri -54.5Unexplained at open~6.5 pts toward MissouriSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward MissouriOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Missouri -50Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusMissouri -55.5Unexplained gap~5.5 pts toward MissouriExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~4.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffAt open ~6.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffIn-week ~2 pts toward Missouri

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~4.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffAt open ~6.5 pts toward Arkansas-Pine BluffIn-week ~2 pts toward Missouri
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Missouri's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 98%. Historically, the market shaded about 4.4 points toward Arkansas-Pine Bluff (average-estimate range 3.1–5.4), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Arkansas-Pine Bluff 14 · Missouri 54
Pregame OV Line
Missouri -54.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Missouri -55.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Missouri -50
Actual margin
Missouri by 40

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Arkansas-Pine Bluff <0.01%Missouri >99.9%

Compare Teams

Arkansas-Pine BluffVSMissouri

Model View

Overall Rating—+15.9 · #15
Offense Rating—+6.6
Defense Rating—+9.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.21
Offense Success Rate—45.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.03
Defense Success Rate Allowed—34.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—6.6
Playoff Odds—10.3%
Strength of Schedule Rank—12th