Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Arkansas was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMissouri at Arkansas
Week 9 · Oct 31Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville, AR
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Missouri -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Missouri -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusMissouri -1011-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Missouri -1011-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward ArkansasExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Arkansas is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Arkansas ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Arkansas lost the most recent meeting with Missouri.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Arkansas lost the most recent meeting with Missouri by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Arkansas is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Missouri enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Missouri enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Missouri is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Missouri is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Missouri begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Missouri ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Missouri is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Missouri faces materially stronger Texas in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Missouri is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Texas.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Missouri 34 · Arkansas 10
- Pregame OV Line
- Missouri -11
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Missouri -10
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Missouri by 24
Observed 14h 10m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMissouri -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Missouri -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMissouri -10Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Missouri -10Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Missouri 80.0%Arkansas 20.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Missouri -10
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