Offense#4
+13.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.18 #57 FBSSuccess rate40.5% #94 FBS
SEC · #3 of 138
Texas
Implied Strength+27.8vs. FBS average · ±3.3
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds79%make the 12-team field
Conference Title32%win SEC
Strength of Schedule2ndof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. UTSAWeek 3 · OV Line TEX -29 · 99% win chance →Toughest remaining test#9 LSUWeek 11 · 63% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#3
+14.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.10 #40 FBSSuccess rate allowed39.2% #43 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Texas's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 10–2 (10.0 expected wins), and the playoff is more likely than not at 79%. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 10 winsCentral 80% 8–12 winsBowl eligible 99.9%Undefeated 12.6%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
78.6%Make the 12-team field
More likely than not across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached78.6% total
Auto-bid31.8%
At-large46.8%
Outside field21.4%
Conference title31.8%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Texas ranks 15th of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production72.1%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class51stof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production15thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total9.2Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Texas State at Texas · Austin, TX · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
11:00 PM · Oct 16
Florida at Texas · Austin, TX · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 23
Ole Miss at Texas · Austin, TX · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 30
Mississippi State at Texas · Austin, TX · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium — NIGHT: 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 13
Texas at LSU · Baton Rouge, LA · Tiger Stadium (LA) — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 20
Arkansas at Texas · Austin, TX · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium — AFTERNOON: 3:30 - 4:30pm ET start
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Texas through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS49%21–22 against consensus
Average line gap3.2 pts63% inside 3 points · 27 of 43
Factor coverage47%20 of 43 games
Factor signals64% aligned14 of 22 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample43 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Texas games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 8 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 63%5 of 8 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.3 pts toward Texas | 86%6 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 6 | 0.9 pts toward Texas | 50%3 of 6 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward Texas | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 43 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Texas A&MHome | Texas +1 | Texas +2.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | W 27–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. ArkansasHome | Texas -11 | Texas -8.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 52–37 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at GeorgiaAway | Texas +6 | Texas +3.5 | 2.3 pts toward Texas | 1.7 pts toward Texas | 0.6 pts toward Texas | L 10–35 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. VanderbiltHome | Texas -11.5 | Texas -3.5 | 7.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.9 pts toward opponents | W 34–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at Mississippi StateAway | Texas -12 | Texas -8.5 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.3 pts toward opponents | W 45–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at KentuckyAway | Texas -15.5 | Texas -12.5 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | W 16–13 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. OklahomaNeutral | Texas -4.5 | Texas -2.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward Texas | 3.6 pts toward opponents | W 23–6 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W6 | at FloridaAway | Texas -7 | Texas -4.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.3 pts toward opponents | L 21–29 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Sam HoustonHome | Texas -43 | Texas -39.5 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | 8.5 pts toward opponents | 5.0 pts toward Texas | W 55–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. UTEPHome | Texas -40.5 | Texas -39.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 6.1 pts toward opponents | 5.2 pts toward Texas | W 27–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. San José StateHome | Texas -30 | Texas -37 | 6.5 pts toward Texas | 4.1 pts toward opponents | 10.6 pts toward Texas | W 38–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at Ohio StateAway | Texas -2 | Texas +2 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward Texas | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 7–14 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2024 · W15 | vs. GeorgiaNeutral | Texas -1.5 | Texas -3 | 1.3 pts toward Texas | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward Texas | L 19–22 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2024 · W14 | at Texas A&MAway | Texas -9 | Texas -4.5 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.3 pts toward opponents | W 17–7 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. KentuckyHome | Texas -21 | Texas -18.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 31–14 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at ArkansasAway | Texas -16.5 | Texas -13 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward opponents | W 20–10 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. FloridaHome | Texas -19 | Texas -23 | 4.1 pts toward Texas | 1.1 pts toward Texas | 3.0 pts toward Texas | W 49–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W9 | at VanderbiltAway | Texas -23.5 | Texas -17 | 6.3 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 4.0 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. GeorgiaHome | Texas -6 | Texas -4 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | L 15–30 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. OklahomaNeutral | Texas -16.5 | Texas -17 | 0.4 pts toward Texas | 1.2 pts toward Texas | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 34–3 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | Texas -36 | Texas -37 | 0.8 pts toward Texas | 4.0 pts toward opponents | 4.8 pts toward Texas | W 35–13 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W2 | at MichiganAway | Texas -16 | Texas -6.5 | 9.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 9.4 pts toward opponents | W 31–12 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W14 | vs. Oklahoma StateNeutral | Texas -16 | Texas -14.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Texas | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 49–21 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. Texas TechHome | Texas -14.5 | Texas -16 | 1.6 pts toward Texas | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Texas | W 57–7 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at Iowa StateAway | Texas -13 | Texas -7.5 | 5.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.5 pts toward opponents | W 26–16 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at TCUAway | Texas -10.5 | Texas -12.5 | 2.2 pts toward Texas | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Texas | W 29–26 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Texas -5.5 | Texas -4 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 33–30 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. BYUHome | Texas -22.5 | Texas -20.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward Texas | W 35–6 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W8 | at HoustonAway | Texas -22 | Texas -23.5 | 1.3 pts toward Texas | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward Texas | W 31–24 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. OklahomaNeutral | Texas +3 | Texas -4 | 6.8 pts toward Texas | 1.0 pts toward Texas | 5.8 pts toward Texas | L 30–34 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. KansasHome | Texas -17 | Texas -16.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 40–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at BaylorAway | Texas -19.5 | Texas -17.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 38–6 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | at AlabamaAway | Texas +19 | Texas +7 | 12.0 pts toward Texas | None identified | 12.0 pts toward Texas | W 34–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. BaylorHome | Texas -10.5 | Texas -10 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 38–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at KansasAway | Texas -12 | Texas -9 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.8 pts toward opponents | W 55–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. TCUHome | Texas -7 | Texas -7.5 | 0.3 pts toward Texas | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Texas | L 10–17 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at Kansas StateAway | Texas -5.5 | Texas -3 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Texas | 4.1 pts toward opponents | W 34–27 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W8 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Texas -5.5 | Texas -6.5 | 0.9 pts toward Texas | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Texas | L 34–41 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Texas -15.5 | Texas -15.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 24–21 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. OklahomaNeutral | Texas +0.5 | Texas -7.5 | 7.8 pts toward Texas | 1.8 pts toward Texas | 6.0 pts toward Texas | W 49–0 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Texas -10.5 | Texas -7.5 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 38–20 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at Texas TechAway | Texas -13.5 | Texas -7 | 6.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.3 pts toward opponents | L 34–37 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. AlabamaHome | Texas +23.5 | Texas +21.5 | 2.3 pts toward Texas | 2.7 pts toward Texas | 0.4 pts toward opponents | L 19–20 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 43 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.