Texas State at Texas

Week 1 · Sep 5DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX
Texas State0–2-0.4 vs. avg · #69
@
Texas2–0+27.8 vs. avg · #3

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineTexas -27.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusTexas -30.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineTexas -27.5Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward Texas StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineTexas -25.5Unexplained Gap~5 pts toward TexasExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineTexas -27.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward Texas StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Texas -25.5Opening Market ConsensusTexas -30.5Unexplained at open~5 pts toward TexasSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Texas -25.5Current Market ConsensusTexas -30.5Unexplained gap~5 pts toward TexasExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2 pts toward Texas StateAt open ~2 pts toward Texas StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Texas

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2 pts toward Texas StateAt open ~2 pts toward Texas StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Texas
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Texas's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 46%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.8 points toward Texas State (average-estimate range 1.0–2.9), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Texas is favored by 30.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-total favorite Inconclusive

Texas is favored in a game with a consensus total of 60.2.

Studied in 288 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Texas begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Texas faces materially stronger Ohio State in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Trap game Inconclusive

Texas is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Ohio State.

Studied in 186 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Texas State is a 30.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Texas State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Texas State 7 · Texas 59
Pregame OV Line
Texas -27.5
Final recorded market
Texas -30.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Texas -25.5
Actual margin
Texas by 52

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Texas State 2.3%Texas 97.7%

Make Your Picks

Open until scheduled kickoff

Who will win this game?

Straight-up winner

Your winner pick refines your personal ratings. Game location is accounted for; your spread pick records where you differ from the market.

Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Sep 5.

Compare Teams

Texas StateVSTexas

Model View

Overall Rating-0.4 · #69+27.8 · #3
Offense Rating+2.7+13.7
Defense Rating-3.1+14.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.310.18
Offense Success Rate45.8%40.5%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.160.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.1%39.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.39.2
Playoff Odds1.2%78.6%
Strength of Schedule Rank71st2nd