Close-win regression Developing estimate
Texas enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMississippi State at Texas
Week 9 · Oct 31DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Texas -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTexas -2011-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Texas -2011-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward TexasExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Texas is favored by 20.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Texas begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Mississippi State has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State is a 20.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Mississippi State lost the most recent meeting with Texas.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Mississippi State 3 · Texas 31
- Pregame OV Line
- Texas -17
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Texas -20
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Texas by 28
Observed 13h 55m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineTexas -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTexas -21Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Texas -21Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Mississippi State 9.3%Texas 90.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Texas -20
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