Close-win regression Developing estimate
Texas enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyOle Miss at Texas
Week 8 · Oct 23DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX
FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
Matchup View
Opening Line
Texas -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusTexas -8.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Texas -8.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Ole MissExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Texas begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Ole Miss enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Ole Miss enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Ole Miss begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Ole Miss ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Ole Miss is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineTexas -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTexas -8.5Based on 1 book
Texas -8.5Based on 1 bookWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Ole Miss 16.9%Texas 83.1%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Texas -8.5
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