Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Texas enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFlorida at Texas
Week 7 · Oct 17DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Texas -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTexas -11.511-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Texas -11.511-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward TexasExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Texas was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Texas enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Texas has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Texas is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Texas begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Texas lost the most recent meeting with Florida.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Florida enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Florida enters after losing its previous lined game by 19 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Florida was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Florida enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Florida begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Florida 27 · Texas 24
- Pregame OV Line
- Texas -11
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Texas -11.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Florida by 3
Observed 2h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineTexas -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTexas -9.5Earliest observed 2-book consensus
Texas -9.5Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Florida 20.3%Texas 79.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Texas -11.5
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