Close-win regression Developing estimate
Texas enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUTSA at Texas
Week 3 · Sep 19DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX
Matchup View
Opening Line
Texas -29Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas -29Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusTexas -30.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Texas -30.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward TexasExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Texas is favored by 30.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Texas begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Texas faces materially stronger Tennessee in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Texas is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Tennessee.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
UTSA was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
UTSA enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
UTSA is a 30.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
UTSA ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
UTSA lost the most recent meeting with Texas.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
UTSA lost the most recent meeting with Texas by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineTexas -29Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas -29Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTexas -30Based on 2 books
Texas -30Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
UTSA 1.1%Texas 98.9%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Texas -30.5
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