Offense#17
+8.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.09 #111 FBSSuccess rate39.9% #101 FBS
SEC · #9 of 138
LSU
Implied Strength+21.0vs. FBS average · ±3.6
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds43%make the 12-team field
Conference Title9%win SEC
Strength of Schedule11thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Ole MissWeek 3 · OV Line LSU -0.5 · 51% win chance →Toughest remaining test#3 TexasWeek 11 · 37% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 3.4 rating points.
Defense#10
+12.2vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.08 #32 FBSSuccess rate allowed38.5% #34 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How LSU's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 9–3 (8.8 expected wins), with a 43% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 9 winsCentral 80% 7–11 winsBowl eligible 98.1%Undefeated 2.8%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
43.3%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached43.3% total
Auto-bid8.7%
At-large34.6%
Outside field56.7%
Conference title8.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
LSU ranks 11th of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production21.2%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class8thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production11thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total8.5Consensus preseason line
11:00 PM · Oct 16
Mississippi State at LSU · Baton Rouge, LA · Tiger Stadium (LA) — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 6
Alabama at LSU · Baton Rouge, LA · Tiger Stadium (LA) — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 13
Texas at LSU · Baton Rouge, LA · Tiger Stadium (LA) — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
12:00 AM · Nov 21
LSU at Tennessee · Knoxville, TN · Neyland Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
LSU through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS41%18–26 against consensus
Average line gap2.7 pts64% inside 3 points · 28 of 44
Factor coverage36%16 of 44 games
Factor signals56% aligned9 of 16 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample44 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in LSU games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 7 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 71%5 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 6 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 33%2 of 6 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 3 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 44 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at OklahomaAway | LSU +8.5 | LSU +11.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | L 13–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Western KentuckyHome | LSU -28 | LSU -24.5 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 0.2 pts toward LSU | W 13–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. ArkansasHome | LSU -8.5 | LSU -4 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 23–22 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | at AlabamaAway | LSU +11 | LSU +10 | 1.2 pts toward LSU | None identified | 1.2 pts toward LSU | L 9–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Texas A&MHome | LSU +0.5 | LSU +1.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 25–49 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at VanderbiltAway | LSU -3.5 | LSU +1.5 | 5.2 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward opponents | L 24–31 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. South CarolinaHome | LSU -15 | LSU -8.5 | 6.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.5 pts toward opponents | W 20–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at Ole MissAway | LSU +0.5 | LSU +2.5 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 19–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. SE LouisianaHome | LSU -47.5 | LSU -49 | 1.1 pts toward LSU | 2.1 pts toward opponents | 3.2 pts toward LSU | W 56–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. FloridaHome | LSU -7 | LSU -5 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | W 20–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Louisiana TechHome | LSU -30.5 | LSU -36.5 | 5.8 pts toward LSU | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 10.0 pts toward LSU | W 23–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at ClemsonAway | LSU +5 | LSU +5.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 17–10 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. OklahomaHome | LSU -4.5 | LSU -6 | 1.4 pts toward LSU | None identified | 1.4 pts toward LSU | W 37–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. VanderbiltHome | LSU -14 | LSU -9.5 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward opponents | W 24–17 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W12 | at FloridaAway | LSU -6 | LSU -3 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | L 16–27 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. AlabamaHome | LSU +7.5 | LSU +2.5 | 4.9 pts toward LSU | None identified | 4.9 pts toward LSU | L 13–42 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at Texas A&MAway | LSU +1.5 | LSU +2 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 23–38 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | at ArkansasAway | LSU -8 | LSU -3 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 3.8 pts toward opponents | W 34–10 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. Ole MissHome | LSU +5.5 | LSU +4 | 1.3 pts toward LSU | 1.1 pts toward LSU | 0.3 pts toward LSU | W 29–26 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. UCLAHome | LSU -21 | LSU -21.5 | 0.5 pts toward LSU | None identified | 0.5 pts toward LSU | W 34–17 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | at South CarolinaAway | LSU -7.5 | LSU -6.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 36–33 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. NichollsHome | LSU -39.5 | LSU -48.5 | 9.1 pts toward LSU | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 9.2 pts toward LSU | W 44–21 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. USCNeutral | LSU -7.5 | LSU -4 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.3 pts toward opponents | L 20–27 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. Texas A&MHome | LSU -7.5 | LSU -10.5 | 2.8 pts toward LSU | None identified | 2.8 pts toward LSU | W 42–30 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. FloridaHome | LSU -18 | LSU -16 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | W 52–35 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at AlabamaAway | LSU +0.5 | LSU +3 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | L 28–42 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. AuburnHome | LSU -10.5 | LSU -11 | 0.6 pts toward LSU | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward LSU | W 48–18 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W6 | at MissouriAway | LSU -11 | LSU -6 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.9 pts toward opponents | W 49–39 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at Ole MissAway | LSU -1 | LSU -3 | 1.9 pts toward LSU | None identified | 1.9 pts toward LSU | L 49–55 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. ArkansasHome | LSU -16 | LSU -17.5 | 1.4 pts toward LSU | None identified | 1.4 pts toward LSU | W 34–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | at Mississippi StateAway | LSU -8 | LSU -9.5 | 1.4 pts toward LSU | None identified | 1.4 pts toward LSU | W 41–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. GramblingHome | LSU -51.5 | LSU -56.5 | 5.1 pts toward LSU | 4.4 pts toward opponents | 9.5 pts toward LSU | W 72–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Florida StateNeutral | LSU -7.5 | LSU -2.5 | 5.0 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 4.0 pts toward opponents | L 24–45 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W14 | vs. GeorgiaNeutral | LSU +15 | LSU +17 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward opponents | L 30–50 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W13 | at Texas A&MAway | LSU -7 | LSU -10 | 3.0 pts toward LSU | None identified | 3.0 pts toward LSU | L 23–38 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at ArkansasAway | LSU -4.5 | LSU -5.5 | 0.8 pts toward LSU | None identified | 0.8 pts toward LSU | W 13–10 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. AlabamaHome | LSU +17.5 | LSU +13.5 | 4.0 pts toward LSU | None identified | 4.0 pts toward LSU | W 32–31 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. Ole MissHome | LSU 0 | LSU 0 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 45–20 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at FloridaAway | LSU -1 | LSU +2 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 45–35 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. TennesseeHome | LSU +3.5 | LSU +2.5 | 1.1 pts toward LSU | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward LSU | L 13–40 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W5 | at AuburnAway | LSU -10.5 | LSU -8 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 21–17 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | LSU +1 | LSU +3 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | W 31–16 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. SouthernHome | LSU -47 | LSU -44.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward LSU | W 65–17 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Florida StateNeutral | LSU -5.5 | LSU -4.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward LSU | 2.8 pts toward opponents | L 23–24 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
Sample: 44 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.