Texas vs Oklahoma

Week 6 · Oct 10Neutral Site · Cotton Bowl · Dallas, TX

Matchup View

Opening LineTexas -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusTexas -61-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineTexas -7Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward TexasOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineTexas -8.5Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward OklahomaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineTexas -7Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward TexasOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Texas -8.5Opening Market ConsensusTexas -6Unexplained at open~2.5 pts toward OklahomaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Texas -8.5Current Market ConsensusTexas -6Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward OklahomaExplore similar gaps Neutral venue is in Texas's home state~1.5 pts toward Texas

Neutral venue is in Texas's home state

~1.5 pts toward Texas
Estimate is uncertain

Cotton Bowl is about 182 miles from Texas's home stadium and 172 miles from Oklahoma's. That does not mean the crowd will favor Texas, and the travel difference may be modest.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Oklahoma enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence

Oklahoma was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Oklahoma enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

Oklahoma is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Oklahoma begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Oklahoma lost the most recent meeting with Texas.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Oklahoma lost the most recent meeting with Texas by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

Oklahoma is the underdog in a matchup played at least 9 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Texas enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Texas is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Texas begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Defense travels Contradictory evidence

Texas is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.

Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
Texas 70.4%Oklahoma 29.6%

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Compare Teams

TexasVSOklahoma

Model View

Overall Rating+27.8 · #3+20.9 · #10
Offense Rating+13.7+7.3
Defense Rating+14.0+13.6

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.180.11
Offense Success Rate40.5%40.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.10-0.02
Defense Success Rate Allowed39.2%30.7%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total9.28.0
Playoff Odds78.6%16.7%
Strength of Schedule Rank2nd9th