Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Missouri is favored by 26.8 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTroy at Missouri
Week 3 · Sep 19Memorial Stadium · Columbia, MO
Matchup View
Opening Line
Missouri -24Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Missouri -24Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusMissouri -272-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Missouri -272-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward MissouriExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Missouri begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Missouri ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Missouri faces materially stronger Mississippi State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Missouri is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Mississippi State.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Troy enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Troy is a 26.8-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Troy lost the most recent meeting with Missouri.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Troy lost the most recent meeting with Missouri by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineMissouri -24Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Missouri -24Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMissouri -27.5Based on 2 books
Missouri -27.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Troy 3.0%Missouri 97.0%
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Market consensus · Missouri -27
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